SpaceX's Weekend Launch Record Masks a Deeper Battle Over Its AI Valuation
Published on 08/17/2026 at 06:30 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The spectacle of two Falcon 9 rockets lifting off from opposite coasts of the United States within 38 minutes on Saturday was a reminder of SpaceX's operational dominance. The first mission carried a classified payload for the US Space Force, while the second deployed Globalstar satellites from Vandenberg. It marked the shortest interval any single provider has ever achieved between two orbital launches — the 96th Falcon 9 mission of 2026, with both boosters recovered successfully.
Yet for investors, the launch cadence is secondary to a far messier question: what is the AI-infrastructure bet actually worth?
The stock closed Friday at EUR 120.96, down 1.2 percent on the day, still 38 percent below its June peak of EUR 194.46. The weekly picture differs depending on which source you consult — one shows a 0.9 percent gain, another 5.1 percent — but both agree the shares have stabilized somewhat after a rough stretch. Over 30 days, the equity has climbed roughly 12 percent, with elevated volatility of 93 percent that analysts attribute in part to the expiry of the first major lock-up period on August 6, which freed roughly 911.5 million shares worth over $100 billion for early investors and employees.
The Bull Case, Stated Boldly
Morgan Stanley has thrown down the most aggressive marker. Analyst Adam Jones reaffirmed an Overweight rating with a $300 price target over the weekend, citing the closed $60 billion Cursor deal, Starlink's growth trajectory, and the Starship program. The firm sizes the addressable AI market at $22.7 trillion and projects AI revenue run-rate climbing from $4 billion in June to $8 billion by the end of 2026 and $33 billion by 2028.
Citi's John Godyn echoed the optimism on August 10, maintaining a Buy with a $200 target and praising "strong growth and solid execution." UBS followed a day later with a $220 target, pointing to the upcoming Starship Flight 14 as a pivotal catalyst for connectivity and AI expansion.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
The Skeptics Counter
The dissent is equally loud. One research house cited by investors slashed its AI segment valuation from $160 billion to $80 billion, arriving at a fair total value of roughly $260 billion — well below the current market capitalization. Piper Sandler cut its target to $140 from $156 and downgraded to Neutral, while RBC moved the stock from Outperform to Hold.
Goldman Sachs adds a longer-term caution: if the aggressive investment pace continues, it projects negative free cash flow of $105 billion by 2029. The consensus remains bullish — 24 Buy ratings against six Holds and two Sells, with an average target of $228.59 — but the dispersion is unusually wide.
Two Sides of the Same Quarter
The first quarterly report since the June IPO, published August 4, illustrates why opinions diverge so sharply. Revenue grew 92 percent year over year to $7.8 billion, with adjusted EBITDA up 191 percent to $3.5 billion. The net loss narrowed from roughly $1 billion to $541 million.
Starlink remains the anchor: $4.29 billion in revenue, $1.65 billion in profit, and 12 million subscribers. The space segment, by contrast, lost $542 million on $962 million in revenue. AI revenue grew 247 percent but consumed the bulk of the quarter's $18.4 billion in capital expenditures, 86 percent of which went to AI infrastructure. New cloud contracts totaled $14.1 billion, and the company confirmed Starshield government orders exceeding $6 billion with a multi-year term.
Institutional behavior reflects the ambivalence. AustralianSuper, managing A$410 billion, holds just 73,500 SpaceX shares and remains cautious about post-IPO volatility. Norway's sovereign wealth fund took the opposite tack, building a $1.22 billion position by the end of June.
What Comes Next
The next test is Flight 14 of Starship, tentatively scheduled for August 28, when SpaceX will attempt to catch the upper stage with the launch tower and deploy operational Starlink V3 satellites — a milestone UBS calls decisive for the growth narrative. On the commercial front, Vietnam's VinSpace signed a contract on August 11 for a Transporter rideshare mission slated for 2027.
The technical indicators offer little clarity: the RSI sits at 54.3, squarely neutral. For now, the market seems to be waiting — not on launch cadence, which SpaceX has already mastered, but on whether the billions poured into AI infrastructure will eventually justify a valuation that bulls and bears cannot agree on.
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