SpaceX Shares Surge as Argus Upgrade Bolsters Bull Case After Record AI-Driven Quarter
Published on 08/08/2026 at 04:02 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
SpaceX capped a turbulent week with its strongest daily gain in recent memory, as a fresh endorsement from Argus Research helped shift the narrative away from concerns over ballooning capital expenditures. The stock closed Friday's session at 115.14 euros, up 15.66 percent on the day, extending the week's advance to 22.53 percent. Even after the rally, however, the shares remain roughly 42 percent below the June peak of 194.46 euros — a reminder of how far the post-IPO pullback had traveled before this rebound took hold.
The catalyst arrived Thursday when Argus analyst Steven Silver upgraded the stock from Hold to Buy, setting a price target of 160 dollars. Silver pointed to the rapid payback period on the company's multibillion-dollar AI infrastructure spending as the key rationale, directly challenging the pessimism that had gripped investors following the quarterly report. The move came a day after the stock had closed at 99.55 euros, setting the stage for Friday's sharp reversal.
A Quarter That Split Wall Street
The earnings release on Tuesday laid bare the tension at the heart of the SpaceX investment case. Revenue surged 92 percent year over year to 7.81 billion dollars, comfortably ahead of the 6.93 billion dollars analysts had penciled in. The net loss narrowed to 541 million dollars, or 9 cents per share, versus a loss of 1 billion dollars in the year-ago period — landing well inside the wide range of analyst estimates that stretched from a loss of 1.26 dollars per share to a gain of 33 cents. Adjusted EBITDA nearly tripled to 3.5 billion dollars.
The headline numbers, though, came with a caveat that rattled the market initially. Capital expenditures exploded to 18.37 billion dollars, far exceeding the 13.22 billion dollars analysts had expected, with 15.83 billion dollars of that flowing into AI infrastructure alone. Management guided to roughly 65 billion dollars in full-year capital spending, against a consensus figure of 50 billion dollars. In after-hours trading immediately following the release, the stock dropped as much as 8 percent as investors digested the scale of the spending spree.
While SpaceX's massive capital outlays are aimed at future growth, many UK employers face a different kind of risk: failing to document workplace hazards properly. A free toolkit with 41 ready-to-use templates and checklists helps you manage risk assessments efficiently and stay compliant. Download the free Risk Assessment Toolkit
The AI Engine Powers the Narrative
What ultimately won over the skeptics was the performance of the AI segment itself. Revenue in that business grew 247 percent year over year to 2.6 billion dollars, driven by new cloud service contracts rather than the Grok models. The division posted its first positive adjusted EBITDA, even as it recorded an operating loss of 1.3 billion dollars. CFO Bret Johnsen put the payback period for AI data center investments at under a year — the very metric Argus cited in its upgrade.
The company's AI ambitions extend well beyond its own data centers. A partnership with Nvidia, branded Starmind AI1, will develop satellite-based computing payloads, with future SpaceX data centers to be equipped exclusively with Nvidia's Vera Rubin GPUs and Vera CPUs. A separate agreement with Google is expected to generate roughly 920 million dollars per month in AI capacity deliveries. Anthropic has secured the entire computing capacity of the Colossus-1 data center in Memphis, while AI firm Reflection AI gains access to Nvidia's top chips for 150 million dollars per month. In total, the company announced new AI contracts worth 14.1 billion dollars, with Johnsen noting that 6.7 billion dollars in cloud deals will begin contributing to revenue from October.
Elon Musk, for his part, expects computing capacity to exceed two gigawatts by year-end, scaling to around ten gigawatts by the end of 2027.
Lock-Up Expiry Passes Without Drama
Thursday also marked the expiration of the IPO lock-up period, releasing 911.5 million shares held by insiders and employees into the market and lifting the free float to roughly 1.55 billion shares. Despite fears of an overhang, the stock continued to climb — a testament to the strength of the underlying fundamentals.
The core Starlink business provided additional support. Subscribers doubled year over year to 12 million, up 17 percent quarter over quarter, and the company reiterated its target of reaching a 100 billion dollar annualized recurring revenue run rate by year-end. Cash reserves swelled to 93.5 billion dollars following the IPO proceeds, while debt and finance leases rose to 36.8 billion dollars over the same period.
Analysts Remain Divided on Valuation
The upgrade from Argus was not the only positive analyst reaction this week. JPMorgan's Doug Anmuth raised his price target to 240 dollars from 225 dollars on Thursday, citing the AI division's first-time EBITDA profitability despite the heavy capital outlays. The broader Street, however, remains split. Price targets range from 140 dollars at Piper Sandler — which cut its target on Thursday — to 300 dollars at Morgan Stanley. The median target sits between 229 and 233 dollars, keeping the consensus firmly in bullish territory.
Starship Looms as Next Catalyst
With the earnings drama settling, attention now turns to the launchpad. Musk has signaled that Flight 14 of the Starship rocket could take place as soon as late August, pending regulatory approval. The mission would mark several firsts: deploying Starlink V3 satellites and attempting a landing of the upper stage. The subsequent flight would aim to catch the Ship with the launch tower. Musk has also floated an ambitious cadence of at least one flight per day within roughly a year.
The week also saw routine Falcon 9 activity, including a Wednesday launch carrying three Direct-to-Cell satellites for AST SpaceMobile from Cape Canaveral, with the first stage completing its 30th landing on the droneship "A Shortfall of Gravitas." That mission marked the 90th Falcon 9 flight of the year. A Falcon 9 upper stage, meanwhile, struck the moon at approximately 5,400 miles per hour on Wednesday — an event observed by astronomers.
For investors, the 30-day volatility reading of 84.59 percent underscores the stock's propensity for sharp swings in either direction. The question now is whether the AI-driven growth story can continue to outpace the concerns over spending — and whether Starship's next flight can sustain the momentum.
