Thyssenkrupp: A Flexible Furnace in Duisburg, a Spinoff Already Trading, and a December Date With the Numbers
Published on 10/31/2026 at 16:21 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Thyssenkrupp shareholders now have two clocks to watch. One is the slow, capital-hungry timetable of the Duisburg steel conversion. The other is the much nearer deadline of 8 December, when the group publishes its annual report for fiscal 2025/2026 alongside its press conference. Between those two markers sits a share price that closed yesterday at €12.05, down 3.3% on the day — a move that says little on its own about either story.
A looser energy rulebook for tkH2Steel
The regulatory news concerns tkH2Steel, the direct-reduction plant under construction in Duisburg. Thyssenkrupp Steel Europe received revised funding conditions for the project yesterday, after the European Commission confirmed the adjustment complies with EU state-aid rules. Under the new terms, the plant may run on natural gas, hydrogen, or any blend of the two once it enters service.
That is a meaningful shift in the investment calculus, though not a change of destination. The facility is designed for 2.5 million tonnes of directly reduced iron a year, and the long-term goal remains operation with 100% hydrogen. What the revision alters is the route: the company can now raise the hydrogen share step by step, in line with supply, cost and customer demand, rather than committing to a full switch regardless of market conditions.
Thyssenkrupp Steel was explicit about why the terms moved. Hydrogen availability and hydrogen prices have developed worse than originally anticipated, it said — a reminder that the funding decision is only one line in a much larger investment calculation. Even on natural gas, emissions from the new route are expected to fall sharply compared with the blast-furnace process.
Structure changed; value did not disappear
The other structural fact is already in the market. Thyssenkrupp completed the spinoff of tk accelis on Wednesday, retaining 51% of the new company. Existing shareholders received one accelis share for every 20 Thyssenkrupp shares they held.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Thyssenkrupp?
That mechanical adjustment lowered the parent company's quoted price, but it should not be read as an equivalent economic loss for investors. Part of their stake is now traded separately. Anyone looking only at the Thyssenkrupp ticker is seeing an incomplete picture — a distinction that matters when judging the 3.3% decline, which cannot be tied cleanly to the funding revision either.
Further reshaping of the steel division remains an option rather than a plan. Reuters reported on Wednesday that chief executive Miguel LĂłpez is also considering a spinoff of the steel unit. His reasoning, according to the agency, is that attempts to find partners have not succeeded: sale talks with Jindal Steel have been put on ice, and a sale is off the table for now.
Why the steel business still sets the terms
Against that background, the central question for investors is not whether Thyssenkrupp can reorganise itself — it is whether the steel conversion can be carried economically. The flexible energy mix widens management's room to manoeuvre, but it does not remove the competitive pressure bearing down on the division.
That pressure is visible in output decisions as well as in prices. Reports point to competition from Asian imports, with Eurostat data showing imports of grain-oriented electrical steel tripling within three years. Separately, the reduction or outsourcing of 11,000 jobs at Thyssenkrupp Steel Europe is already planned. More freedom over fuel in Duisburg would not solve either problem by itself.
Two buy recommendations provide a counterweight to the recent weakness: DZ Bank and Deutsche Bank have both issued buy calls. Still, a durable re-rating would depend more on progress in making the conversion pay than on the ratings alone.
The December test
The favourable case runs like this: Thyssenkrupp operates the Duisburg plant on an economically viable energy mix at first, lifts the hydrogen share as supply and costs allow, and links construction progress to the long-term transition. A more flexible operation could, in turn, ease the financial planning behind the steel spinoff.
The less favourable case starts from the same premises. If hydrogen stays scarce and expensive, the transition could slip, and if competitive pressure persists, the operational relief the conversion is meant to deliver becomes more urgent, not less. A new ownership structure would not fix that on its own, and investors should not treat a possible steel spinoff as a settled remedy — neither its execution nor its economic benefit is established by the reported deliberations.
What 8 December offers is the next hard checkpoint: the annual report and press conference, where the company's own account of the conversion's economics will be measured against the expectations the market has now set.
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