Thyssenkrupp's Balancing Act: Subsidies in Flux as Order Books Swell
Published on 08/18/2026 at 11:03 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The industrial conglomerate's recovery story is running on parallel tracks that rarely intersect so neatly. One division is wrestling with Brussels over the future of its flagship green steel project, while another is basking in the glow of a record-breaking naval contract. For investors, the question is whether the momentum in one corner of the business can offset the uncertainty brewing in another.
At the heart of the tension sits the roughly €3 billion direct-reduction plant in Duisburg, the centerpiece of Thyssenkrupp Steel Europe's decarbonization strategy. According to media reports, the company is in advanced talks with the EU Commission, the federal government, and the state of North Rhine-Westphalia to amend the subsidy conditions attached to the project. The goal: permission to run the facility on natural gas initially, rather than hydrogen, since the requisite hydrogen infrastructure has yet to materialize. Without that flexibility, the plant's production start could slip, jeopardizing a project whose financing depends entirely on the very state aid now being renegotiated.
The timing is awkward, to say the least. Just as the steel division finds itself navigating this political and regulatory maze, the parent company delivered its strongest quarterly performance in recent memory. On Thursday, management raised its full-year adjusted EBIT guidance to a range of €600 million to €900 million, lifting the lower bound from the previous €500 million. The upgrade came alongside third-quarter figures that showed revenue climbing 8 percent to €8.8 billion, with adjusted EBIT advancing to €183 million from €155 million a year earlier. The bottom line swung to a net profit of €34 million.
A Compromise That Buys Time
The juxtaposition is striking: a steel unit that is finally showing operational progress now finds itself fighting to reallocate the very subsidies meant to secure its future. The natural gas bridge solution would give Thyssenkrupp the planning certainty it needs without abandoning the broader transformation strategy. Meanwhile, the restructuring of the steel business continues apace, with the exit from the HĂĽttenwerke Krupp Mannesmann joint venture already confirmed.
Yet the nine-month picture tells a more complicated story. Adjusted EBIT for the period jumped 62 percent to €591 million, with the steel division's contribution nearly doubling to €373 million from €177 million despite lower revenues. Group sales reached €24.4 billion. But the net result remained firmly in the red, with the loss widening to €311 million from €121 million a year earlier, as restructuring charges in the steel unit offset operational gains. The workforce has shrunk to roughly 90,000 employees, down 4,000 year-on-year — a reminder that this turnaround carries a human cost that the headline numbers don't capture.
Naval Orders Provide a Second Tailwind
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On the other side of the house, Marine Systems continues to deliver the kind of news that moves share prices. The division was named a "preferred supplier" for a Canadian submarine program covering twelve 212CD-class vessels — a construction and service package valued at around €20 billion — and has also signed a contract with the German Navy for four MEKO A-200 DEU frigates, with an option for four more. Earlier this week, TKMS raised its own growth forecast, reinforcing the positive momentum.
The market has taken notice. The stock closed Monday at €13.87, just 1.4 percent below its 52-week high of €14.05, having gained 15 percent in a single week. Year-to-date, the shares are up 49 percent, a rally that also reflects the overwhelming shareholder approval of the planned spin-off of the materials division, tk accelis, at an extraordinary general meeting roughly two weeks ago. That said, technical indicators are flashing caution: the RSI sits at 72, a level that historically suggests the stock is overbought and vulnerable to short-term volatility.
Analyst sentiment remains split. JPMorgan's Dominic O'Kane raised his price target on Friday from €12.80 to €15.00 but kept a "Neutral" rating. Bastian Synagowitz of Deutsche Bank Research reaffirmed his "Buy" recommendation with a €16.00 target the same day, though that call dates back to late July and reflects the post-spin-off assessment rather than the latest quarterly numbers.
The Road Ahead
For investors, the Duisburg subsidy negotiations may prove decisive in the coming months. They touch on the fundamental question of how quickly — and at what cost — Thyssenkrupp can actually decarbonize its steel production. The division plans to present its new business structure and medium-term financial targets at a capital markets day in London at the end of September, an event that should offer clarity on the plant's future direction. Until then, the market is left weighing a simple calculus: a steel division fighting for regulatory flexibility, a naval unit printing record orders, and a share price that has already priced in a good deal of optimism.
