Thyssenkrupp's Breakup Math: Naval Orders Mask a Widening Two-Speed Problem
Published on 08/13/2026 at 07:31 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The market has spent years trying to value Thyssenkrupp as a single entity. The Essen-based conglomerate is now forcing investors to do the opposite — and the arithmetic is starting to work in its favor.
Shares have climbed roughly 34 percent since the start of the year, with the latest leg driven by a 3.6 percent jump to €12.46. That puts the stock about 75 percent above its 52-week low of €7.10. The rally reflects a growing conviction that the sum of Thyssenkrupp's parts is worth more than the whole — and that the whole is finally being dismantled in a way that unlocks that value.
The Naval Engine
The clearest evidence of that value sits in the submarine business. TKMS, the naval division, has an order backlog exceeding €20 billion — enough to keep its yards occupied for roughly eight years. The unit is also considered the preferred bidder for a Canadian submarine project worth €15 billion.
That pipeline is translating into hard numbers. Management has lifted its revenue guidance for fiscal 2025/26 from 2-5 percent growth to 10-12 percent, and the adjusted EBIT margin is now expected to reach up to 6.5 percent. In the third quarter alone, TKMS revenue came in about a sixth above analyst expectations, helped by a hefty backlog of submarine construction work.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Thyssenkrupp?
Bernstein Research maintains a "Market-Perform" rating on TKMS with a €76 price target, while acknowledging the division's strong positioning in the defense sector. The message is clear: in an environment where defense spending is surging across Europe, TKMS has become the conglomerate's most valuable single asset.
The Hydrogen Hangover
The contrast with thyssenkrupp nucera could hardly be starker. The hydrogen subsidiary, once the flagship of the group's green transformation story, is now the clearest drag on the narrative.
Nucera has cut its annual targets and halted plans for mass production of its SOEC electrolysis technology. The expected operating loss for the year now sits between €75 million and €105 million, with an additional special charge of around €30 million tied to the SOEC exit. Regulatory uncertainty and a delayed market ramp-up are taking their toll.
The third-quarter numbers tell the same story: revenue fell 21 percent to €145 million, and the nine-month operating loss reached €69 million. There is one bright spot — order intake rose 29 percent to €81 million, boosted by a first major green hydrogen order from India. But for investors in the parent company, the message is that the future-facing business is growing, however unevenly, while still burning capital.
Financing the Breakup
The structural logic of the split is becoming clearer even as the financial mechanics tighten. The latest piece: tk accelis, the group's materials services division, has secured a €1.7 billion credit line through asset-based lending — meaning it is borrowing against its own assets rather than relying on the parent's balance sheet. That is a technical detail with strategic weight: a division that can organize its own liquidity is preparing for independence.
The planned spin-offs are proceeding, but they carry risk. The use of asset-based lending for these separations suggests the financial headroom for the remaining entities could be tight. Credit rating agencies Moody's and S&P continue to assess the group's creditworthiness in speculative territory, which keeps the cost of fresh capital elevated.
Thyssenkrupp at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
A Sum-of-the-Parts Bet
With a market capitalization of €7.49 billion, the question is whether the market already reflects what TKMS alone could be worth. The relative strength index sits at 56 — neutral territory, suggesting the rally has room to run without being overheated.
Thyssenkrupp has effectively transformed from a restructuring story into a structural one. The old world of defense is delivering record results while the new world of electrolysis burns cash. As long as TKMS keeps delivering operationally, tk accelis stands on its own feet, and even the problem child nucera collects new orders, the pressure builds on the market to value each division separately.
The conglomerate discount is shrinking, but the split is not without cost. The hydrogen rucksack is getting lighter, though it remains expensive to carry. For now, the market is betting that the naval juggernaut can keep overwhelming the weaknesses elsewhere — and that the sum of the parts, finally being counted individually, is worth more than the whole.
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