Thyssenkrupp's Rally Faces a Fork in the Road: Steel Optimism Meets Hydrogen Reality
Published on 08/17/2026 at 19:02 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The market's enthusiasm for Thyssenkrupp has rarely been this pronounced — and rarely this complicated. The industrial conglomerate's shares are trading at levels not seen since 2018, fueled by a restructuring narrative that keeps gaining momentum, even as the flagship green steel project in Duisburg hits an awkward snag.
Bank of America underscored the bullish mood on Monday, lifting its price target on the stock from €18 to €19. The move came as the shares edged up 0.8 percent to €13.92, extending a rally that has delivered a 61 percent gain over the past twelve months. The stock now sits just 1.2 percent below its 52-week high of €14.05, with the gap to the 200-day moving average stretching to 36 percent — a measure of just how swiftly the market has repriced the company.
Two Catalysts on the Horizon
The bank's revised target rests on a pair of upcoming events: the legal completion of the TK Accelis spin-off, slated for late October, and the capital markets day for the steel division on September 28. Shareholders approved the split just over a week ago, but the formal registration in the commercial register remains pending — meaning the structural effects are still ahead of the market rather than behind it.
That September gathering will test whether the steel unit's improved operating performance is durable. Over nine months, the division has posted operating earnings of €373 million, closing in on its own full-year target of €350 million to €400 million.
A Contradictory Quarter
The recent share price surge traces back to Thursday, when Thyssenkrupp raised the lower end of its EBIT guidance for the current fiscal year to €600 million–€900 million, having previously started the range at €500 million. Third-quarter revenue climbed 8 percent to €8.8 billion, and net income swung to a positive €34 million against a €190 million loss in the same period last year.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Thyssenkrupp?
Yet the full-year picture remains less flattering. Management confirmed during the earnings call that a net loss of €400 million to €700 million is still expected for the year — a reminder that special items and restructuring costs continue to weigh on the bottom line despite the operational improvement.
The Hydrogen Complication
The most conspicuous wrinkle involves the €3 billion "green steel" facility in Duisburg, the centerpiece of the company's decarbonization strategy. As reported on Friday, Thyssenkrupp is negotiating adjusted financing terms for the project because hydrogen — essential for climate-neutral steel production — will not be available on the originally anticipated timeline. That delay ripples through the project's financial calculus and casts a shadow over the transformation narrative at a moment when the company is otherwise delivering largely positive news.
Portfolio Pruning and a Submarine Bright Spot
Meanwhile, the conglomerate continues to streamline its portfolio. The Italian Arvedi Group has acquired Thyssenkrupp's remaining 15 percent stake in Acciai Speciali Terni, generating a cash inflow in the high double-digit millions. That follows Salzgitter's purchase of the HKM stakes in July — both transactions fitting a pattern of focusing on core businesses and freeing up capital.
The standout performer remains Marine Systems. TKMS reported a record order backlog exceeding €20 billion, and management has hinted at a possible standalone path for the steel division, modeled on the already-approved tk accelis separation — the news that initially triggered the recent 10 percent run-up in the shares.
Divergent Analyst Views
Not everyone shares Bank of America's conviction. JPMorgan responded to the quarterly figures on Friday with a Neutral rating and a €12.80 price target — below the current trading level. The stock closed Friday at €13.79, up 2.9 percent on the day.
Technical indicators suggest the rally may be getting ahead of itself. The relative strength index stands at 72.2, flashing overbought conditions that could invite short-term profit-taking without necessarily undermining the fundamental case.
For investors, the near-term script is already written: the steel capital markets day on September 28 will test whether operational progress justifies the elevated expectations, while the unresolved hydrogen financing questions in Duisburg will determine whether the green transformation stays on schedule. Between the multi-year highs and the overbought technicals, the shares may well oscillate until those answers arrive.
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