Thyssenkrupp's Submarine Boom and Steel Turnaround Mask a Widening Net Loss
Published on 08/18/2026 at 13:32 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The industrial conglomerate's restructuring story is getting harder to read in a single glance. Thyssenkrupp raised the floor of its full-year earnings guidance on Thursday, lifted by a stronger-than-expected third quarter and a surge of momentum from its naval subsidiary — yet the headline net result deteriorated sharply, and one of its green-energy bets is bleeding more than anticipated.
Management now sees adjusted earnings before interest and taxes of at least €600 million for fiscal 2025/26, up from a previous floor of €500 million. The ceiling remains unchanged at €900 million. The revision follows a quarter in which adjusted EBIT climbed 18% year on year to €183 million, even as revenue reached €8.79 billion. That figure, however, came in shy of the €207 million that analysts had penciled in.
The nine-month picture tells a more dramatic story. Adjusted EBIT jumped 62% to €591 million, with the steel division nearly doubling its profit contribution to €373 million from €177 million — despite lower sales. Group revenue for the period reached €24.4 billion.
A Net Loss That Keeps Growing
Beneath the operating improvements, the bottom line remains under pressure. The net loss widened to €311 million from €121 million a year earlier, a deterioration driven by restructuring charges in the steel business. Those costs are also reshaping the workforce: headcount fell by 4,000 to roughly 90,000 employees by the end of June.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Thyssenkrupp?
The steel unit is preparing to make its case directly to investors. Thyssenkrupp Steel Europe has scheduled a capital markets day for late September, promising transparency on its economic trajectory and the progress of its strategic overhaul. Management continues to pursue a partial separation of the division, with a minority stake sale remaining the stated ambition.
TKMS: The Second Engine
The naval arm, Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems, emerged as a parallel growth driver. TKMS raised its own guidance on Wednesday, pointing to significantly stronger expansion ahead. The move reinforces the momentum generated in early July, when Canada placed an order for up to twelve Type 212CD submarines — a contract worth roughly €20 billion in construction and service volume.
That order book is now feeding directly into the parent company's narrative. Deutsche Bank lifted its price target on Thyssenkrupp following Thursday's results, joining a string of positive analyst reactions in recent weeks. The bank had previously set a €16.00 target in late July, in the wake of the capital markets event for the materials trading unit tk accelis.
The Hydrogen Drag
Not everything is moving in the right direction. Thyssenkrupp Nucera, the hydrogen subsidiary, is expected to post even larger losses after exiting its SOEC business, according to a dpa-afx report. That unit now serves as a counterweight to the otherwise improving operational picture.
Shares Near the Ceiling
The market has been rewarding the turnaround narrative with remarkable consistency. The stock closed Monday at €13.87, just 1.4% below its 52-week high of €14.05. It gained 15% in a single week and is up 49% year to date — though the technical picture is starting to flash caution. The relative strength index sits at 72, a level that historically suggests overbought conditions and elevated vulnerability to pullbacks. Volatility, meanwhile, is running at 35%.
The broader strategic direction is clear: Thyssenkrupp is dismantling its conglomerate structure piece by piece, with divisions increasingly charting their own courses. The combination of a recovering steel business and a rapidly expanding naval franchise provides the foundation for the current rally. Whether the operational recovery can eventually translate into a healthier net result will depend on how quickly the steel restructuring costs subside.
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