Tungsten's Price Shock Is Flattering Almonty's Books — But the Real Catalyst Is Still Spooling Up
Published on 08/15/2026 at 04:10 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The arithmetic at Almonty Industries is eye-catching in the extreme. Revenue up nearly sixfold year on year. A headline net profit of C$181.8 million. A cash pile that has swollen past the billion-dollar mark. Yet the tungsten producer's shares spent the days after its second-quarter report giving back gains rather than extending them, a reminder that in this particular set of numbers, the optics and the operations are two very different stories.
The figures, published on 11 August, show quarterly revenue leaping 498% to C$43.0 million from C$7.2 million a year earlier, and climbing from C$25.4 million in the first quarter of 2026. The engine is unmistakable: the European APT reference price for tungsten has rocketed from roughly US$453 per MTU to about US$3,075 — a more than sixfold surge that has flowed straight through to the income statement.
Mining profit came in at C$26.1 million against a C$0.9 million loss in the prior-year quarter, with costs of C$16.9 million yielding a 60.7% gross margin at the mine level. Adjusted EBITDA reached C$17.6 million, a sharp turnaround from negative C$4.8 million a year earlier.
That headline net profit, however, deserves a closer read. Nearly all of it — C$173.1 million of the C$181.8 million total, or C$0.62 per diluted share — stems from non-cash gains on the revaluation of derivatives and warrants. The company has stressed that these accounting entries had no bearing on either operations or liquidity. Strip them out and the underlying picture is more modest but still clearly improving: the first quarter of 2026 produced a net loss of C$5.3 million, an improvement on the C$34.6 million loss a year prior, helped by the absence of a C$25.8 million warrant-liability revaluation charge. Adjusted EBITDA in Q1 was just C$6.1 million, underscoring how much of the sequential momentum is tied to tungsten's price spike.
The market's response has been characteristically twitchy. The stock jumped 8.3% on the day of the release, with investors suddenly willing to pay up for a company that entered the quarter with a history of widening losses. That enthusiasm faded quickly. By 13 August the shares had closed at US$13.85, down 3.6%, and while the stock is in positive territory on a weekly view, it remains roughly 22% lower over three months. The recent pop follows an earlier 13.6% surge tied to the start of production at Sangdong, the company's flagship South Korean mine, which was still in its commissioning phase at the quarter's end. Its full contribution to results has yet to appear in the numbers.
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What has appeared is a dramatically stronger balance sheet. The operating cash flow for the first half of 2026 swung to C$31.6 million from an outflow of C$14.9 million in the same period last year. Cash and equivalents stood at approximately C$1.23 billion as of 30 June, up from C$268.4 million at the end of 2025, with the bulk of that increase coming from an oversubscribed US$800 million convertible bond carrying a 2.25% coupon.
That war chest buys optionality, but it also carries a caveat that analysts have been quick to flag. Should bondholders convert, dilution looms; should they not, interest payments remain a drag. The market's muted reaction to the quarter suggests investors are weighing that overhang against the operational progress at Sangdong, where Phase I is designed to process roughly 640,000 tonnes of ore annually at full capacity, with a permitted Phase II potentially doubling that to 1.2 million tonnes.
Administrative costs are climbing in tandem with the expansion, rising from C$4.1 million to C$8.9 million on higher personnel, consulting and legal expenses. Meanwhile, the company is streamlining its listings: trading volume has increasingly migrated to the Nasdaq, with activity on the TSX and ASX dwindling. CDIs held on the Australian register represented just 0.80% of issued shares as of 14 July 2026.
Diamond Equity Research, which published its assessment on 14 August, framed the quarter as a preview of what lies ahead once Sangdong reaches full capacity. The mine was not yet running at full tilt at the balance-sheet date, meaning its earnings contribution is entirely absent from these results. The coming quarters will reveal how quickly that changes — and whether the share price has already priced in the promise.
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