UBS Trims Silver Forecast to $75 as Trump-Xi Talks Loom Over Metals Market
Published on 09/23/2026 at 14:01 | Editorial boerse-global.de
The Swiss banking giant UBS has lowered its outlook for silver, with strategists Wayne Gordon and Dominic Schneider now projecting a price of $75 per ounce by March 2027. Their revised call rests on two pillars: softening industrial consumption and more cautious investor buying.
Solar manufacturers sit at the heart of that demand problem. Rising procurement costs are pushing producers to cut back on the metal's use in modules, while the jewelry sector is also showing less activity. Combined, UBS puts the decline across these demand categories at roughly 50 million ounces over the full year.
AI Buildout Offers a Partial Offset
Not all demand channels are shrinking. Heavy spending on data centers, artificial intelligence and power-grid upgrades is creating fresh buyers for silver. According to the Silver Institute industry association, data centers will account for more than 10% of total demand in electrical and electronic applications next year.
That emerging appetite only partly compensates for the solar pullback. Boosting mine output is difficult in the near term because silver is mostly extracted as a by-product of base-metal mining. UBS analysts size global mine supply at about 850 million ounces this year.
Currency and Bond Markets Add Pressure
Further headwinds stem from foreign exchange and fixed income. A firmer US dollar and elevated government bond yields erode the appeal of non-yielding precious metals. Several Federal Reserve officials have recently signaled a willingness to act again should inflation pressure stay high in demand-sensitive parts of the economy.
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On Tuesday, the COMEX front-month contract finished at $67.61 per troy ounce.
Politics Takes Center Stage
This week, attention in the silver market has shifted to a gathering of world leaders. Investors are watching announced talks between US President Trump and Chinese President Xi on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.
According to media reports, trade issues around tariffs and developments in artificial intelligence top the agenda. For silver, the exchange carries direct relevance: the metal serves not only as a store of value but also sees sustained demand from makers of AI hardware and solar panels.
Anticipation of the political negotiations already shaped recent sessions. On Monday, silver futures climbed as high as $67.32 an ounce, having opened the morning at $66.51. By the close, the front-month contract on the COMEX settled at $66.53 per troy ounce.
Fed Rhetoric Cools the Rally
Alongside geopolitical expectations, the macroeconomic backdrop remains demanding. A little over a week ago, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate. On Tuesday, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem reinforced that stance, signaling readiness for further hikes.
The prospect of tighter monetary policy temporarily checked the latest advance. On the other side, recently falling energy prices lent stability to the market environment, supported by diplomatic efforts to ease Middle East tensions and secured regional energy flows.
Silber Preis at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Physical Stocks in Focus
Beyond rate expectations, market participants are keeping a close eye on physical trading venues.
These inventory figures underscore the ongoing draw on physical stockpiles by the real economy. For market observers, the ratio of registered to vaulted metal provides important clues about how much material is immediately available should short-term delivery demands arise.
On the exchange, the price is moving within a broadly firm range. Compared with levels around twelve months ago, silver shows a gain of 50%. What happens next will likely hinge on the trade-policy signals emerging from the US-China talks in the coming days.
The combination of tighter monetary policy and more cautious industrial prospects suggests that prices may linger in their established range for now. Investors are now watching whether recent support levels can withstand the changed rate environment.
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