VW's US Overhaul Takes Shape as Pickup Talks With Ford Surface — and Audi's Profit Warning Deepens the Gloom
Published on 08/09/2026 at 14:53 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The pressure building on Volkswagen's leadership is now visible on two fronts at once. In North America, the carmaker is preparing a sweeping strategic reset that could involve a new pickup truck — potentially developed with Ford — while back in Europe, its most profitable premium brand has just slashed its own outlook for the year.
Audi's revised guidance, delivered on 27 July, trimmed its 2026 revenue forecast from €63–68 billion to €58–63 billion, with the expected operating margin now pegged at 5–7 percent rather than the previously targeted 6–8 percent. For a group already wrestling with a profit warning and a boardroom standoff, the downgrade from its own subsidiary underscores how deeply the current downturn has cut.
A New Face in the US, and a Question of Partnership
The North American reset is already triggering personnel changes. Marco Schubert, currently Audi's head of sales, is being dispatched to the United States to take over from Kjell Gruner, who is leaving the company. The move, first reported by Handelsblatt and confirmed to Reuters by a source, is part of a broader effort to revive Volkswagen's fortunes in a market where it holds just a 4 percent share.
Central to that effort is a new pickup model, though whether it will be developed in-house or with a partner remains an open question. Ford has emerged as the most likely collaborator — the US automaker already supplies Volkswagen with the MEB platform used for the Explorer and Capri models built in Cologne. A decision is expected in the coming weeks or months.
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The initiative has the backing of the controlling families, who intensified pressure on stakeholders for drastic restructuring on Friday. Their patience appears thin: Volkswagen's US market position has long been a sore spot, and the new management structure is meant to signal that the group is finally serious about fixing it.
Numbers That Forced a Reckoning
The urgency is easy to trace in the second-quarter figures. Volkswagen reported an operating result of €3.5 billion for the April-to-June period — nearly 10 percent below the prior-year quarter and well short of the €4.3 billion analysts had expected, according to LSEG data. Revenue climbed to €82.4 billion, beating forecasts, but the operating margin came in at just 4.2 percent.
The group result told a starker story: net profit fell 32.9 percent year-on-year to €1.54 billion, down from €2.29 billion in the same period of 2025. The primary culprit was China, where deliveries plunged 26 percent to 424,300 vehicles, even as Europe and South America posted gains. The first quarter had already offered a warning — group profit dropped 28.4 percent to €1.56 billion, with revenue easing 2.5 percent to €75.7 billion.
For the first half as a whole, Volkswagen posted an operating result of €3.6 billion, up 4.5 percent year-on-year, with an operating margin of 3.8 percent — or 4.3 percent adjusted for special items.
Those numbers forced the board to walk back its full-year guidance. Volkswagen now expects revenue to decline by up to 3 percent in 2026, a sharp reversal from the earlier forecast of growth of up to 3 percent. The group is holding firm on its target margin of 4.0 to 5.5 percent.
The Boardroom Battle Over Job Cuts
The restructuring plan itself remains stalled. Although the supervisory board gave preliminary approval in early July, the decisive votes on plant closures and specific job reductions were postponed. Worker representatives rejected management's proposal by a 12-to-7 vote, leaving the plan in limbo.
The scale of what's at stake is considerable. Volkswagen has confirmed that up to 100,000 positions could be eliminated, with the future of four German plants still unresolved. The model lineup is slated to be cut by as much as half by 2030. Media reports — including from Der Spiegel — have suggested that the Zwickau and Emden plants could be at risk from 2031, Hannover from 2032, and the Audi site in Neckarsulm from 2034, though none of this has been officially confirmed.
CEO Oliver Blume's "Group Target Picture 2030" frames the cuts as a necessary response to tariffs, overcapacity, and shifting demand. The plan also includes reducing global production capacity and streamlining the portfolio.
Everllence Sale Moves Forward
One piece of the restructuring is already in motion. At the end of June, Volkswagen agreed to sell a 51 percent stake in its diesel engine subsidiary Everllence to Bain Capital in a leveraged buyout valued at around €7.4 billion. Volkswagen will retain 49 percent, and the transaction — still subject to regulatory approval — is expected to close by the end of 2026. Bain has committed to keeping the German sites operational until at least the end of 2030 and ruled out compulsory redundancies.
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A Mixed Analyst Response
Reaction to the half-year results has been divided. Jefferies trimmed its price target on 27 July from €120 to €115 but maintained a Buy rating. Oddo BHF, by contrast, initiated coverage with a Neutral stance and a target of €80, arguing that the results and the accompanying conference call had again highlighted the significant structural challenges Volkswagen faces, particularly in China. The broker did anticipate some improvement in the fourth quarter, especially at Audi, supported by seasonality and cost reductions.
Another house cut its target from €99 to €90 on the same day while keeping a Buy recommendation. The broader consensus as of early August shows seven analysts with Buy ratings and five with Hold, and an average price target of €111.42 — comfortably above the current share price.
Signs of Life in the Order Book
Not everything is pointing downward. Orders for battery-electric vehicles in Europe jumped more than 50 percent in the second quarter, and EVs now account for 31 percent of the total order backlog. The new ID. Polo family has attracted over 70,000 orders within weeks of launch, and on 5 August, Volkswagen opened pre-sales for a new full-hybrid powertrain for the Golf and T-Roc, with the Golf Hybrid available in R-Line trim from €41,400.
Shares Recover From the Summer Low
The market has shown some tentative resilience. On Friday, Volkswagen's preferred shares closed at €76.42, up 1.51 percent on the day and roughly 10 percent above the 52-week low of €69.20 touched on 1 July. The stock remains down 26.63 percent since the start of the year, and the recovery's durability will likely hinge on whether the US overhaul gains traction — and whether investors see concrete progress on the China weakness and cost structure in the months ahead.
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