Xiaomi's Pre-Order Surge Meets a Margin Squeeze: The Two Fronts Shaping Its August Reckoning
Published on 08/05/2026 at 17:23 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The numbers tell a story of remarkable consumer enthusiasm. Xiaomi's upcoming SkyNomad SUV lineup has already drawn more than 100,000 reservations ahead of its September launch, according to Chinese news agency Cailian Press. The Beijing-Tianjin region alone accounts for over 30,000 of those bookings, with a single Beijing store registering 4,800 deposits in one day earlier this month. Yet on the trading floor, none of this momentum seems to matter. The stock sits at €3.07, down 2.14 percent on Wednesday, and has shed 14.08 percent over the past week alone.
A Model Lineup Built for Volume
The SkyNomad series marks Xiaomi's push into the range-extender segment, targeting families and high-mileage drivers. The smaller N70 stretches 4,960 millimeters across five seats and offers a choice between a 52-kWh LFP or a 76-kWh NCM battery, delivering up to 505 kilometers of pure electric range on China's CLTC cycle. The flagship N90 extends to 5,285 millimeters with seven seats, manages 464 kilometers on its 76-kWh pack, and — thanks to the range extender and a 60-liter fuel tank — claims a combined range of up to 1,700 kilometers. Its 310 kW powertrain launches it from standstill to 100 km/h in 5.9 seconds, topping out at 190 km/h. Pricing starts at 259,900 yuan for the N70 and 299,900 yuan for the N90, positioning the pair above mainstream Chinese offerings yet well below European luxury SUV territory.
Production is already underway at the second phase of Xiaomi's Beijing plant, an expansion designed to avoid the delivery bottlenecks that plagued the earlier YU7 model. A European launch is penciled in for 2027. The N70 goes head-to-head with the Li Auto L7, while the N90 aims to capture buyers prioritizing interior space.
The Delivery Math Gets Steeper
The pre-order bonanza arrives at a critical juncture for Xiaomi's automotive ambitions. Management has set a 2026 delivery target of 550,000 vehicles, but only around 220,000 units have reached customers between January and July. That leaves a demanding arithmetic: more than 60,000 vehicles per month for the remaining five months — a pace that would strain any automaker's logistics, let alone one still wrestling with capacity constraints. The company has acknowledged persistent production bottlenecks even as the SU7 series delivered more than 30,000 vehicles for the fourth consecutive month in July.
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Where the Real Pressure Builds
While the EV division captures headlines, the core electronics business faces a different kind of storm. Xiaomi's first-quarter 2026 results revealed the strain: revenue climbed to 99.1 billion renminbi, but adjusted net profit collapsed 43.1 percent to 6.1 billion renminbi. The culprit, according to the company, is surging DRAM prices squeezing margins across smartphones and consumer electronics. That makes the August 18 earnings release for the second quarter a pivotal moment — investors will learn whether memory-chip costs have peaked or continue to erode profitability.
The company is fighting back on multiple fronts. It has slashed API prices for its MiMo-V2.5 language model by up to 99 percent, countering aggressive moves from rivals like DeepSeek. The AI push comes with a hefty price tag: 160 billion yuan in planned investments for 2026, scaling to 600 billion yuan over three years. These capital-intensive bets in both autos and artificial intelligence are pressuring margins in the near term, even as they position Xiaomi for the long game.
Support Mechanisms and Overhangs
For bulls, there are tangible reasons for patience. The board authorized a 20 billion Hong Kong dollar share buyback program in May with a twelve-month horizon, potentially cushioning further downside. Founder Lei Jun added his own vote of confidence in November 2025, purchasing shares worth 100 million Hong Kong dollars at an average price of HK$38.58 per share.
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The bear case is equally concrete. The stock trades 17.41 percent below its 200-day moving average and sits 53.31 percent off its September 2025 peak of €6.54 — a decline of roughly 53 percent from that high. Year-to-date losses stand at 29.16 percent, and the shares have nearly halved over twelve months. An unresolved legal dispute in India adds another layer of uncertainty: Xiaomi is contesting a customs demand on royalty payments totaling 72 million US dollars, which could balloon to 150 million US dollars with interest. A negative ruling would not only hit the balance sheet but could also tarnish confidence in the company's international expansion.
The August Verdict
The immediate question is whether the SkyNomad reservations can translate into delivered vehicles quickly enough to matter. The deeper question — the one that will likely determine the stock's trajectory — is whether the DRAM cycle has peaked. If memory prices ease, Xiaomi could regain profitability even with stable revenue. If they keep climbing, the margin pressure from the first quarter may repeat, and the EV momentum alone may not be enough to offset the damage. The August 18 earnings call will provide the first hard evidence of which scenario is unfolding. Until then, the pre-order headlines and the chart's downward slope will continue to tell two very different stories about the same company.
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