Xiaomi's September Showcase Arrives With a Margin Question Hanging Over Every Launch
Published on 09/02/2026 at 13:22 | Editorial boerse-global.de
A stock that has shed roughly half its value over the past twelve months rarely gets the benefit of the doubt, no matter how packed its product pipeline looks. Xiaomi is about to test that proposition. On September 7, the company will unveil a foldable smartphone, a new tablet, and an entire family of extended-range electric SUVs in Beijing — a product blitz that underscores its operational ambition even as investors keep their distance.
The shares traded at €3.07 on the day of the announcements, up 0.8 percent, but that modest uptick does little to mask a brutal stretch: the stock has fallen 29 percent since the start of the year and sits roughly 54 percent below its 52-week high of €6.54. It currently trades about 13 percent beneath its 200-day moving average of €3.54, a technical signal that the medium-term trend remains pointed downward despite the wave of positive headlines.
A Homegrown Chip Takes Center Stage
The most striking element of the launch lineup is the Xring O3, Xiaomi's in-house 3-nanometer processor. With ten cores, a clock speed of up to 4.36 GHz, graphics performance improved by 85 percent, and power consumption reduced by 64 percent, the chip places Xiaomi in closer proximity to established flagship silicon makers. Geekbench benchmarks reportedly show a multi-core jump of around 65 percent over its predecessor, the Xring O1 — evidence that the company is serious about technological self-sufficiency.
That push for independence extends beyond the processor. The 18 Fold will be the first smartphone anywhere to use LPDDR6 memory from CXMT, a Chinese supplier, signaling Xiaomi's intent to reduce reliance on Western and Taiwanese component makers. CEO Lei Jun has already showcased the red foldable design in a livestream, an unusual personal endorsement that hints at how much prestige the company has attached to this product.
The pricing tells a similar story. With a starting price above 10,000 yuan — some reports put it closer to 12,000 yuan — the 18 Fold becomes Xiaomi's first smartphone to cross that threshold. It is a deliberate move into premium territory where Apple and Samsung have traditionally dominated, though ambition and market acceptance are not the same thing.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Xiaomi?
The Cost Squeeze Nobody Can Ignore
What makes this launch window particularly delicate is the timing. Xiaomi, along with Huawei and Honor, raised smartphone prices by up to 1,000 yuan on September 1, responding to memory costs that Counterpoint analysts say surged more than 80 percent in the second quarter. The company must now demonstrate it can pass those higher component costs to customers without choking off demand for its new flagships.
The broader market offers little comfort. IDC data shows Chinese smartphone shipments fell 4.3 percent in the second quarter to 66 million units. Reports also indicate that Xiaomi, Oppo, and Vivo have cut their delivery targets for the year by up to 30 percent, citing rising costs and component shortages — a sign that the September price increases may not fully absorb the cost burden, potentially forcing Xiaomi to sacrifice volume instead.
This is precisely why the margin question has become the central debate around the stock. Bernstein trimmed its price target on Tuesday from HK$43 to HK$38 but maintained an "Outperform" rating. The firm values Xiaomi at 16 times expected 2027 earnings, well below the historical average of 25 — a discount that essentially bets on whether Xiaomi can offset higher component costs through price increases and a richer product mix.
The Auto Bet Grows Bigger
Alongside the smartphone push, Xiaomi is doubling down on its electric vehicle business. The Sky Nomad lineup includes three EREV SUVs — the N70 Pro, N70 Max, and N90 Max — with the top-tier N90 Max positioned as a seven-seater offering 464 kilometers of electric range and 1,705 kilometers of total range at a price near 300,000 yuan. The N70 Max starts lower, at roughly 260,000 yuan.
The company delivered more than 30,000 vehicles in August and is targeting 550,000 deliveries for 2026. The new YU7 GT, with around 990 horsepower, pushes the brand further into the high-performance segment, potentially supporting higher average revenue per vehicle. But the competitive landscape is tightening: Waymo is planning robotaxi tests in Munich, while Momenta holds a nationwide Level-4 license in China and has partnered with Uber. Auto expert Dudenhöffer sees Xiaomi as a future challenger to established manufacturers like BMW — a compliment that also underscores how capital-intensive and margin-sensitive the EV business remains.
A Market Waiting for Proof
The tension is hard to miss. Xiaomi is executing on multiple fronts simultaneously — smartphones, tablets, three SUV models, plus the presentation of SU7 supercar variants at IFA in Berlin — yet the share price reflects skepticism rather than enthusiasm. The annualized volatility of 57 percent captures the uncertainty investors are wrestling with.
For bulls, the product breadth and the technological independence demonstrated by the Xring O3 argue for improved margins in the premium segment. For bears, the risk is that customers defect to cheaper rivals like Honor or Nubia, or that price competition in EVs intensifies as new autonomous-driving players enter the market. If demand cracks, Bernstein's target cut could prove to be merely the first in a series of downward revisions.
The September 7 event will offer the next concrete test, followed by early sales figures for the Sky Nomad models and the 18 Fold in the weeks after. Until those numbers arrive, the stock remains a case of "proof pending" — a company delivering technologically while its valuation waits for evidence that the market will follow.
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