Xiaomi's Tuesday Reckoning: EV Momentum Meets a Margin Squeeze
Published on 08/16/2026 at 03:05 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The numbers that matter most to Xiaomi investors won't land until Tuesday, but the company has already telegraphed part of the answer. Its electric vehicle division delivered 31,267 cars in July — the fourth consecutive month above the 30,000-unit threshold — bringing the year-to-date tally to 216,322 vehicles. Those figures, reported ahead of the interim results due on August 18, offer a rare bright spot in what has otherwise been a bruising stretch for the stock.
The shares closed Friday at €2.87, down 5.6% on the week and roughly 34% below where they started the year. The decline stretches back further still: over the past twelve months, the stock has shed 51% of its value, a slide that has left it trading just beneath its 50-day moving average of €2.89. The relative strength index sits at 43.4, a neutral reading that suggests neither buyers nor sellers have seized control.
The EV division's profitability question
Analysts will be looking past the delivery headlines to the underlying economics. In the first quarter, the "Smart EV and other new initiatives" segment generated around RMB 19.9 billion in revenue, and the second-quarter consensus range for total company revenue sits between RMB 108.8 billion and RMB 110.9 billion. The EV business is expected to be the primary growth engine — provided scale is finally translating into healthier margins.
The central question is whether economies of scale have begun to absorb the heavy startup costs that have weighed on the division. Tuesday's report should reveal whether the delivery cadence is converting into bottom-line improvement, and management's framing of the full-year targets will be scrutinized for clues about the second half.
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Smartphone margins under pressure from memory costs
The picture in Xiaomi's core handset business is more complicated. Goldman Sachs analysts have flagged rising memory chip prices as a headwind that could compress gross margins year over year. The company has been pushing further into the premium segment and leaning on higher average selling prices to offset the cost pressure, but its global market share still slipped slightly in the second quarter — a reminder that the competitive environment remains unforgiving.
The product pipeline, however, is busy. Rumors from the supply chain point to a higher starting price for the upcoming Xiaomi 18 series — reportedly above 5,499 yuan — with five color options and a next-generation Qualcomm chip, though nothing is confirmed. In India, the Redmi 17 series is slated for a September 5 launch, with the Redmi Note 17 Pro following mid-to-late September and the Xiaomi 18 Pro expected by December. China has already seen the Redmi K100 Pro Max debut, featuring a 200-megapixel camera and a Bose-tuned speaker system. The company also began rolling out its August security patch earlier this month across numerous Redmi, Poco, and Xiaomi devices, including the Xiaomi 15S Pro and several tablet models.
What Tuesday will settle
The technical picture suggests a stock waiting for a catalyst. A breakout above the 50-day average, backed by strong results, could generate short-term upside momentum. Disappointment, by contrast, would put the 52-week low of €2.34 back in play as the next support level.
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The market's verdict will hinge on two things: whether the EV business is finally moving toward profitability, and whether smartphone margins can withstand the memory chip cost pressure. The delivery numbers have already shown operational traction; the margin data will show whether that traction is worth anything to shareholders. Both answers arrive together on Tuesday, and together they are likely to set the direction for the weeks ahead.
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