Xiaomi's Two-Front Squeeze: EV Delivery Math and Smartphone Margins Set Up a Pivotal August 18
Published on 08/15/2026 at 17:11 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The countdown to Xiaomi's interim results has taken on an unusually sharp edge. When the company's board convenes on August 18 to sign off on first-half figures and weigh an interim dividend, management will face a market that has already voted with its feet — the stock has shed roughly a third of its value since January, and the question hanging over the session is whether the numbers can reverse that verdict.
The pressure is coming from two directions at once. On the smartphone side, Xiaomi has reportedly raised prices on its Mi-17 flagship lineup by 400 to 500 renminbi, with Redmi K90 and Turbo 5 models also marked up by 300 renminbi. Whether that reflects climbing component costs or a bid to defend margins in China's brutally competitive handset market, the move signals that the core business is feeling the squeeze.
The electric vehicle division tells a more worrying story. July deliveries came in at 31,267 units — the fourth straight month above the 30,000 threshold, which on its face looks respectable. But the cumulative tally through July stands at just 216,322 vehicles, roughly 39 percent of the 550,000-unit annual target. The arithmetic is unforgiving: the remaining months would need to deliver at a noticeably higher clip than anything achieved so far.
Beneath that aggregate figure sits a sharper divergence. The SU7 sedan managed 21,044 deliveries in July, up 3.1 percent month-on-month, but the YU7 SUV slumped 28.6 percent to 10,223 units. That kind of volatility in a young product lineup does little to reassure investors already fretting about whether the full-year guidance survives contact with reality.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Xiaomi?
Adding to the EV segment's headaches is a safety incident that has complicated the narrative around Xiaomi's driver-assistance technology. A SU7 was involved in a crash while its lane-centering system was active, with reports indicating the active safety systems failed to detect the obstacle in time. In an environment where public scrutiny of autonomous driving features is already intense, that episode carries outsized weight.
The software side of the business has been generating its own headlines, though not all of them flattering. HyperOS 4 debuted this week alongside the launch of its beta phase, anchored by the integrated "Super XiaoAI 2.0" assistant. But coverage of the rollout has been split between the promised system-performance gains and criticism that the interface's translucent "frosted glass" aesthetic borrows heavily from Apple's iOS. For investors, the more meaningful question is whether the software translates into device sales — the beta is slated to expand to more than 20 devices through August and September, with testing already live on eight models including the Xiaomi 17 Ultra.
The company has also been quietly distributing security patches — nine additional devices received updates in early August, and the July Android security patch now covers 58 models — underscoring the breadth of a portfolio that spans phones, tablets, and now cars.
Management has been signaling its own view of the stock's value. Under the ongoing buyback program, Xiaomi repurchased roughly 1.862 million Class B shares at an average price of about 26.85 Hong Kong dollars, a total outlay of around 50 million Hong Kong dollars. Share repurchases of that sort typically read as a statement that the board considers the current price cheap — but they do little to address the fundamental tension between a struggling EV business and compressed margins in the core handset operation.
The market's skepticism is already baked into the charts. The shares closed Friday at 2.87 euros, up 0.8 percent on the day, but that leaves the stock down 5.6 percent over seven sessions and 34 percent lower year-to-date. The current level sits roughly 56 percent below the 52-week high of 6.54 euros set on September 25, 2025, while remaining about 23 percent above the 52-week low. The stock is trading under both its 50-day average of 2.89 euros and its 200-day average of 3.64 euros.
Analysts are penciling in second-quarter revenue of 116.84 billion yuan and earnings per share of 0.225 yuan — figures that would mark a notable step down from the prior-year period. The August 18 session therefore shapes up as the moment of truth on two fronts: whether the numbers validate or contradict the market's pessimism, and whether management holds firm on the 550,000 delivery target or concedes that the goal is slipping out of reach.
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