Xiaomi's Two-Front Test: Can the SUV Hype Outweigh a Smartphone Slump?
Published on 08/02/2026 at 19:22 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The arithmetic is unforgiving. Xiaomi needs to ship roughly 60,000 electric vehicles every month for the rest of 2026 to hit CEO Lei Jun's full-year target of 550,000 units. Through the end of July, the company had cleared only about 34 percent of that mark — a shortfall that no product launch, however flashy, can paper over.
That reality check landed with force on Friday, when shares closed at EUR 3.23, down 5.00 percent on the day. The pullback came just 48 hours after Xiaomi unveiled its SkyNomad SUV lineup, headlined by the N90 Max and built on the new "Kunlun" architecture. Investors responded to the reveal not with a rally, but with profit-taking.
The contrast is stark. Over the past 30 sessions, the stock has still managed a 30.69 percent gain. Yet the weekly close underscores how quickly sentiment can flip when the market weighs headline-grabbing announcements against the operational grind of scaling an auto business.
A Delivery Streak That Isn't Moving the Needle
The production side of the EV story is genuinely encouraging. July marked the fourth consecutive month in which Xiaomi delivered more than 30,000 electric vehicles — a consistency that many Chinese EV newcomers have yet to demonstrate. The manufacturing chain, in other words, is running smoothly.
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But consistency at 30,000 units is not the same as the 60,000-per-month pace required to meet the annual target. The gap between current throughput and required output is the single biggest swing factor for the stock, far more consequential than any individual product announcement. Xiaomi's smartphone and software businesses may stabilize the core, but it is the EV division that carries the growth narrative — and with it, the company's valuation.
The 200-Day Line Looms Large
Chart watchers have a specific level in mind: the 200-day moving average at EUR 3.73. Friday's close leaves the stock 13.27 percent below that threshold, and the question of whether the recent bounce can close that gap is now front and center.
The technical picture offers some support. The 50-day average sits at EUR 2.92, providing a buffer of roughly ten percent to the downside, while the relative strength index at 57.7 suggests the stock is not yet overbought despite its recent run. Between now and the next major catalyst, traders expect the shares to oscillate between the 50-day and 100-day averages at EUR 3.21.
The Smartphone Shadow
The bear case is not really about EVs at all — it is about the memory-chip crisis eating into Xiaomi's core handset business. Industry data for the second quarter of 2026 shows a double-digit decline in worldwide smartphone shipments, driven by sharply higher prices for memory chips. Xiaomi has been forced to raise end-user prices, which in turn has suppressed demand in the price-sensitive mass market.
That dynamic matters for the EV story too. If the core business is bleeding, the conglomerate's ability to absorb losses in its automotive division becomes a more pressing concern. The stock's 30-day realized volatility of 57.44 percent only amplifies the risk: sudden sell-offs become more likely if the EV unit posts wider-than-expected losses in August.
The longer-term chart is sobering. The share price remains more than 50 percent below its 52-week high of EUR 6.51, and the downtrend will stay intact until the 200-day line is decisively reclaimed.
What the Bulls Are Watching
Optimists point to the breadth of the product offensive. HyperOS 4 is slated for a summer 2026 launch, paired with the "Miclaw" AI system, as Xiaomi positions itself as an ecosystem player weaving hardware and software more tightly together. The July security patch covering 58 device models across Xiaomi, Redmi, and Poco is widely read as groundwork for the HyperOS 4 and Android 17 rollout.
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The Redmi K100 series, expected to be unveiled at the ChinaJoy expo running from July 31 to August 3, could showcase the company's high-end ambitions with a Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 5 chip and an 8,500-mAh battery — though nothing is confirmed. In the foldable segment, rumors persist of a Mix Fold 5 with self-developed hinge components, positioning it directly against Samsung's Galaxy Z Fold 8, expected in August.
If Xiaomi can pair that product cadence with a meaningful acceleration in EV deliveries, the narrative of a diversified tech conglomerate with a serious automotive arm could solidify. Pre-orders for the SkyNomad series exceeding expectations would also bolster second-half forecasts.
The Calendar Decides
The immediate future hinges on two dates. The first is August 18, when the board reviews consolidated interim results for the first half of the year. The second is around August 19, when second-quarter earnings are expected based on last year's schedule. Both will offer the first hard data on EV delivery momentum and the extent to which launch costs are weighing on the balance sheet. Market circles are also speculating about a possible interim dividend.
A sustained move above EUR 3.73 would flip the technical picture from neutral to bullish. Until then, the stock remains a vehicle for investors willing to wait for the numbers to catch up with the narrative — or to confirm their doubts.
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