XPeng’s Order Book Is Booming — So Why Is the Market Still Shrugging?
Published on 08/01/2026 at 17:26 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The arithmetic at XPeng is getting harder to reconcile. The Chinese electric-vehicle maker has amassed more than 50,000 non-cancellable orders for its new Mona L03 SUV, yet its shares are trading within striking distance of a 52-week low. That gap between commercial momentum and market skepticism is now the defining feature of the stock.
At Friday's close, XPeng shares sat at EUR 11.28, down 37.51% since the start of the year and roughly 54% below the 52-week high of EUR 24.40. The equity is also languishing 7.8% beneath its 50-day moving average of EUR 12.23, a technical signal that no sustained recovery has taken hold. An RSI reading of 44.7 points to sideways trading rather than capitulation, with the stock hovering not far above its 52-week floor of EUR 10.18.
A Delivery Miss With a Silver Lining
The immediate catalyst for the current mood was July's delivery report. XPeng handed over 38,027 vehicles worldwide last month, a gain of nearly 4% year over year but a 5.23% drop from June. That shortfall against Deutsche Bank's forecast of up to 45,000 units stems from production bottlenecks on the Mona L03, whose manufacturing ramp-up has yet to reach full capacity.
The cumulative delivery tally now stands at 1,223,828 vehicles since the brand's inception. For the first seven months of the year, the total comes to 204,004 units — a 12.78% decline from the same period in 2025. In the domestic market, July's volume was good enough for fourth place behind SAIC-GM-Wuling, Leapmotor and Huawei HIMA, with Nio, Li Auto and Zeekr trailing. Leapmotor, notably, crossed the 100,000-monthly-delivery threshold for the first time with 101,267 units.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying XPeng?
The L03 Effect
The Mona L03, which launched in Munich on July 16 and starts at 123,800 yuan (roughly USD 18,240) in China, has become the company's most potent demand generator. Initial deliveries began on July 22, and within seven minutes of orders opening, more than 20,000 had flooded in. That backlog has since swelled past 50,000 non-cancellable orders, with customers now facing waits of 13 to 17 weeks — a reflection of both strong appetite and the production constraints that weighed on July's numbers.
XPeng plans to introduce the SUV in 65 countries and regions this year, with five additional models slated for Australia in the second half. The predecessor Mona M03 sold more than 272,000 units in China between August 2024 and May 2026, providing a substantial base for the successor to build upon.
Software as the Second Engine
Beyond hardware, XPeng is repositioning itself as a technology supplier. The Volkswagen partnership offers the most tangible evidence: with the opening of blind bookings for the ID. AURA T6 — built on XPeng's CEA architecture — the company effectively becomes a Tier-1 technology provider to one of the world's largest automakers. Two B-class electric vehicles based on the G9 platform are also in the works under the collaboration.
The autonomous-driving roadmap is equally ambitious. The NGP system, powered by the VLA-2.0 "Physical AI" platform, is slated for global rollout starting in 2027, with XNGP technology confirmed for Australia in the same year. The system relies purely on cameras — no LiDAR, no pre-mapped roads — an approach that analyst Michael Dunne compares to Tesla's, though he suggests XPeng's Physical AI layer may handle edge cases better. Company representative Terry Zhang acknowledged the technology isn't yet deployed outside China, but that changes in 2027. The new L03 already supports the system; the older G6 does not.
International sales are expected to account for more than 20% of revenue this year. The first L4 robotaxi-capable test program is scheduled to begin in the third quarter of 2026.
XPeng at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
A Valuation Disconnect
The market's caution is reflected in the numbers. XPeng's market capitalization stands at EUR 10.82 billion, while the average analyst price target of EUR 19.57 implies theoretical upside of more than 73% — a chasm that underscores how much skepticism is currently priced into the equity. The recent weekly gain of roughly 4% feels more like a tentative breather than a turning point.
Whether the L03 order surge can close that gap remains an open question. The backlog provides rare planning visibility for a company whose year-to-date deliveries trail last year's pace by nearly 13%. But with production still ramping and the broader EV sector cooling, investors appear to be waiting for proof that operational momentum can translate into sustained financial performance — not just a crowded order book.
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