XPeng's Two-Speed Reality: Record Test Miles and Delivery Volume Meet a Stock Stuck at Its Floor
Published on 08/11/2026 at 16:02 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The gap between what XPeng is doing and what its share price is saying has rarely been wider. On the same day the Chinese electric-vehicle maker unveiled its G9L — a five-seat, 800-volt "global technology flagship" — in Guangzhou, the stock slipped 2.12 percent to EUR 10.18, leaving it just 1.39 percent above its 52-week low of EUR 10.04. The company is sprinting across continents while its equity trades within a hair of the basement.
That disconnect is the central puzzle for investors trying to make sense of XPeng's current trajectory. The operational story is one of relentless expansion. The G9L, before its market debut, had already racked up more than 6.74 million test kilometers across 26 countries and regions — a figure management is clearly deploying to signal that this isn't just another China-only model. The international push extends beyond the showroom floor: XPeng recently hosted ten South Korean dealers at its headquarters to preview manufacturing operations and future projects ahead of a formal market entry, plans to launch in the Philippines in the third quarter with two models (likely the L03 and X9), and is preparing five new vehicles for Australia in the second half of the year alongside an expanded local service network.
A Supply Chain That Can't Keep Pace With Ambition
Yet for all the global bravado, the company is wrestling with a decidedly unglamorous constraint: the worldwide shortage of advanced semiconductors. Production of the MONA L03 has moved to double shifts just to catch up on delivery delays, with full capacity not expected until September. It's a reminder that in electric vehicles, global ambition runs straight into a supply chain that doesn't care about launch schedules.
The delivery numbers reflect both the momentum and the friction. July saw XPeng hand over 38,027 vehicles — up 4 percent year over year but down 5.23 percent from June. The annual trend still points upward; the monthly pace has clearly cooled. That nuance matters as investors look toward August 24, when XPeng releases unaudited second-quarter results and the board formally approves the interim figures.
The Valuation Riddle: More Cars, Less Worth
Here's where the market's math gets curious. XPeng delivered more vehicles in July than Nio, which managed 35,934. Yet XPeng's market capitalization stands at roughly EUR 10.04 billion, while Nio commands about EUR 10.77 billion. A company moving more volume but carrying a lower valuation suggests sentiment is driving the tape more than fundamentals.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying XPeng?
The chart tells a punishing story. The stock closed Monday at EUR 10.40, a mere 3.6 percent above its 52-week trough and a staggering 57 percent below the year's high of EUR 24.40. Year to date, the equity has shed 42 percent. Technical indicators hint the selling may be exhausting itself rather than accelerating: the 14-day RSI sits at 37.6, approaching but not yet in oversold territory, while annualized volatility of 39.6 percent points to a steady, grinding decline rather than a panic.
Analysts Split, Institutions Divided
The sell-side is far from unanimous. About a week ago, Goldman Sachs analyst Tina Hou trimmed her price target on XPeng to USD 20 from USD 23 while maintaining a "Buy" rating. That came after Barclays cut its target to USD 15 in mid-July with an "Underweight" call — evidence that skepticism has been building for weeks.
Institutional positioning mirrors that divergence. BlackRock reduced its stake by 23.5 percent in the second quarter to 2.2 million shares, worth roughly USD 29.5 million. Meanwhile, Ameriprise Financial boosted its holding by 29.4 percent to 127,533 shares, and Valeo Financial Advisors edged up 0.3 percent to 387,230. The ownership picture is a market that can't agree on whether the growth story justifies the share price or conceals deeper problems.
BYD Looms Large, But the Comparison That Matters Is Nio
The competitive pressure in China's new-energy vehicle market is undeniable. BYD delivered over 419,000 vehicles in July — a scale that dwarfs anything XPeng or Nio can currently muster. Models like the Fang Cheng Bao Ti9, with its 310-kilometer range and dual-motor setup, keep the heat on XPeng's SUV lineup.
But holding a delivery advantage over Nio in that environment is, by most measures, evidence that the current model strategy is working. The consensus price target of EUR 19.08 implies upside of more than 80 percent from Monday's close of EUR 10.40. Gaps that wide don't usually appear without a reason: either the market is fundamentally mispricing the stock, or the risks are greater than the delivery figures suggest.
The stabilization near the EUR 10 mark could be the first sign of a floor forming. Whether it holds will depend on whether XPeng can resolve its chip bottlenecks faster than investor patience erodes — and whether the August 24 earnings report gives the bulls something more tangible than test-kilometer statistics to work with.
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