XRP's Bull Case Faces a Stress Test as Ledger Volume Surges and ETF Money Retreats
Published on 11/11/2026 at 11:20 | Editorial boerse-global.de
A sharp jump in on-chain payment activity and a fresh round of redemptions from US spot XRP funds are pulling the token's narrative in opposite directions. 21Shares used the moment to argue that XRP is widely misunderstood, pointing to regulatory clarity, institutional products and applications built on the XRP Ledger — while acknowledging that the thesis only holds if growing usage actually translates into demand for the token itself.
That caveat sits at the center of the current picture. Payment volume on the XRP Ledger climbed to roughly 1.16 billion XRP on Monday, a 207.4% increase in a single day and well above the 580.6 million XRP average of the prior 30 days. The metric captures the value moved in payment transactions, making it a useful gauge of network activity — but its signal for a durable revival depends on whether the elevated level holds. By yesterday, with the day still incomplete, payment volume had already fallen back toward 300 million XRP.
Fund outflows compound the market's caution
On the capital-markets side, the pressure is clearer. US spot XRP ETFs recorded net outflows of $7.6 million yesterday, according to media reports, with a separate tally showing $6.9 million that had not yet captured every fund. Both figures pointed to a second consecutive session of withdrawals. Monday had already seen the products lose a net $10.4216 million, of which $9.3972 million came from Bitwise's XRP ETF — a withdrawal heavily concentrated in a single provider.
The retreat comes amid broad weakness across crypto. Reuters reported Monday that investors were worried about tighter cryptocurrency regulation under a Democrat-controlled US Congress, and the news agency also cited the Binance theft as a drag on sentiment. That ties XRP-specific fund movements to a wider reluctance toward digital assets.
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A theft, a refill and a lingering overhang
Binance has said XRP was moved from five of its own online wallets to an address controlled by the attacker in the breach of October 29. According to figures from blockchain analytics firm Elliptic reported yesterday, the attackers had swapped about 42 million XRP by Friday, mostly through THORChain. Binance also stated that 98% of the affected token holdings had been replenished as of November 3. Even so, the behavior of the attackers remains a concrete risk factor for XRP as long as further stolen holdings are swapped.
21Shares makes the long-term case, with conditions attached
The asset manager's argument rests on several pillars: the conclusion of the SEC case against Ripple in August 2025, institutional investment products, and applications for stablecoins and tokenized assets on the XRP Ledger. What matters most, in its view, is the link between that infrastructure and the token — more ledger activity strengthens the investment case only when it generates demand for XRP. The focus therefore shifts to the token's economic role within those applications rather than the mere count of new projects.
On portfolio construction, 21Shares places XRP as a higher-risk satellite position behind Bitcoin, noting that historical losses have at times exceeded 90%. At a current price of $1.05, the environment for that thesis remains demanding.
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What would tip the balance
Redemptions can temporarily overshadow the broader-investor-base argument while more capital leaves than enters. The yardstick for XRP is straightforward: the positive infrastructure story gains weight if network usage and capital demand rise together. As long as higher payment activity runs into withdrawals from investment products, the cautious portfolio placement 21Shares emphasizes stays especially relevant.
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