Nvidia's Golden Cross Shines Amid CEO's China Warning

Nvidia shares closed at €169.48 on Friday, capping an eleven-day winning streak and pushing the stock within six percent of its all-time high. This remarkable run coincides with a stark warning from CEO Jensen Huang about a growing competitive threat from China, creating a complex backdrop for the world's most valuable chipmaker.

The technical picture for the equity is overwhelmingly positive. The 50-day moving average has crossed above the 200-day line, forming a "Golden Cross" that traders interpret as a powerful bullish signal. Year-to-date, the stock has surged nearly 90 percent, supported by robust fundamentals. In the most recent quarter, revenue soared to a record $68.1 billion, driven overwhelmingly by its data center segment, which contributed $62.3 billion.

Wall Street analysts are reinforcing this optimism. Over the weekend, Wall Street Zen upgraded the stock to "Strong Buy." Among 38 tracked analysts, 94 percent now recommend buying. Investment bank Oppenheimer reaffirmed its "Top Pick" rating, issuing a price target of $265. Analysts point to the stock's forward price-to-earnings ratio, currently oscillating between 22 and 28, as attractive relative to its massive growth trajectory in artificial intelligence.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nvidia?

However, CEO Jensen Huang struck a cautionary note over the weekend. He warned that the upcoming V4 AI model from Chinese developer DeepSeek could potentially run on Huawei's Ascend 950PR processors, a shift from its current training on Nvidia's Blackwell architecture. Huang described this potential move as a "terrible outcome" for U.S. technology interests. While American chips are currently estimated to be about five times more powerful than Chinese alternatives, market observers see the strategic risk in Chinese firms migrating their software frameworks away from Nvidia's established CUDA ecosystem.

Macroeconomic trends are providing additional tailwinds. A significant drop in oil prices, with Brent crude falling over nine percent to around $90 a barrel after Iran reopened the Strait of Hormuz, is fueling expectations for cooling inflation. This has bolstered market anticipation for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in September 2026. Lower yields on ten-year government bonds act as a mechanical catalyst for the valuation of technology giants like Nvidia.

The company's aggressive capital return program adds another layer of support, with approximately $58 billion still authorized for share repurchases. All eyes are now on the next major catalyst: the official first-quarter earnings report due on May 20. Management has guided for revenue of around $78 billion. A key focus will be demand for sovereign AI infrastructure, a segment that contributed $30 billion to total revenue last year.

Drivers for this growth include the ongoing ramp of Blackwell systems and the upcoming Vera Rubin architecture, slated for launch in late 2026. The coming report will be scrutinized for confirmation of the ambitious sales forecast and updates on the production start of these new platform generations, even as the long-term strategic landscape grows more competitive.

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