Almonty's $14.15 Support Line Becomes the Battlefront After Convertible Note Triggers 21% Plunge

Almonty Industries is set to join the Russell 1000 and Russell 3000 indices on June 29, a milestone that could unlock billions in institutional demand. Yet the stock is nursing a 21% single-session wound after the tungsten miner revealed its largest-ever financing — a $700 million convertible note — leaving investors to weigh dilution fears against an aggressive growth agenda.

The offering, which is scheduled to settle on June 9, carries a 2.25% coupon and matures in 2031. Convertible into equity at an initial price of roughly $27.40 per share, the notes were priced at a 32.5% premium to the reference close of $20.68 on June 4. The transaction was oversubscribed, indicating solid institutional appetite despite the instant repricing of shares. To cap dilution, Almonty has earmarked $83 million for capped-call transactions, with a ceiling of $41.36 per share.

Net proceeds are expected to land at about $675.9 million, or as high as $772.7 million if the overallotment option is fully exercised. The bulk of the capital is destined for general corporate purposes and working capital, including potential acquisitions — a clear signal that Almonty is positioning itself as a consolidator in the tungsten space. A further $50 million will go toward refinancing existing debt, while the remainder supports the ramp-up of the Sangdong mine in South Korea and global drilling programs. The company's new CFO, Jorge Beristain, who took the reins on June 1, is steering the financial architecture.

Sangdong is at the heart of the growth story. The mine achieved Phase 1 commissioning in March, with processing capacity set at 640,000 tonnes of ore per year. A second expansion phase, planned for 2027, will double that capacity. First-quarter results underscore the operational momentum: revenue surged 221% year over year to C$25.4 million, adjusted EBITDA turned positive at C$6.1 million, and operating cash flow reached C$9.7 million. Almonty is clearly exiting the development stage.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?

But the technical picture has soured sharply. The stock closed at $16.31 after the selloff, though it remains above its 200-day exponential moving average of $13.33. That buffer has thinned dramatically. The key level to watch now is $14.15, a zone that marks the next major support. A hold there could stabilise the chart and ease selling pressure; a break below would target the rising 200-day EMA and risk damaging the longer-term uptrend.

On the upside, the conversion price of $27.40 will act as a formidable resistance ceiling. Before that, Almonty needs to reclaim the $20.00 area, which was the launchpad for the recent breakdown. Any bounce is likely to face initial supply near that round number.

Despite the setback, the year-to-date return stands at roughly 87%, reflecting a powerful rally before this correction. The Russell index inclusion on June 29 — which tracks benchmarks overseeing some $12.2 trillion in assets — could catalyse fresh institutional buying. That event, combined with the eventual settlement of the convertible note, gives Almonty two distinct catalysts within the same month.

Almonty at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.

For now, all eyes are on $14.15. Above $13.33, the long-term trend remains intact. Whether the current pullback becomes a buying opportunity or the start of a deeper correction depends on how convincingly that support holds in the sessions ahead.

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