Almonty's Tuesday Two-Step: Convertible Settlement and Shareholder Meeting Coincide with 20% Tungsten Price Rally

Tungsten producer Almonty Industries suffered a brutal 21% single-day slide on Friday, sending shares to 22.70 CAD and shaving nearly 17% off the week's performance. The trigger: a $700 million convertible note that was massively oversubscribed but spooked equity holders with dilution fears. Yet the storm clouds may have a silver lining — Tuesday June 9 presents a double catalyst that could redefine the narrative.

That morning, the company will settle the convertible debenture, a 2.25% instrument maturing in 2031 with a conversion price of roughly 27.40 US dollars — approximately 32.5% above the stock's close on June 4. Net proceeds are estimated at 675.9 million US dollars after expenses, earmarked for working capital and debt reduction. To cushion dilution, Almonty has hedged with capped-call transactions costing 83 million US dollars, and granted noteholders an additional 100 million US-dollar option.

Later the same day, the annual general meeting convenes. Management is expected to provide updates on the phase-2 expansion of the Sangdong mine in South Korea. The target: double production to around 4,600 tonnes of tungsten concentrate by 2027. That timeline gains urgency from a Pentagon directive requiring US defence contractors to source tungsten from non-Chinese origins by January 2027.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?

The macro backdrop is turning decisively in Almonty's favour. Tungsten prices have jumped roughly 20% in a single week, driven by Beijing's tightening of its export licensing system. In Europe, ammonium paratungstate now trades between $2,900 and $3,180 per tonne unit. Sangdong, once fully ramped, could supply up to 40% of global demand outside China — a crucial buffer for Western supply chains.

Operationally, the company is already gaining traction. First-quarter 2026 revenue surged 221% to 25.4 million US dollars, with adjusted EBITDA of 6.1 million and operating cash flow of 9.7 million. Quarter-end cash stood at 259.9 million. The relocation of corporate headquarters to Dillon, Montana underscores a strategic pivot toward serving US and allied buyers.

Chart watchers see both risk and opportunity. The stock now trades well below its 50-day moving average of 26.64 CAD, and the relative strength index of 39.3 indicates the selloff has been severe — though not yet oversold. The annualized volatility above 100% means such swings are par for the course.

A major liquidity event arrives on June 29, when Almonty will join the Russell 1000 and Russell 3000 indices. Index-tracking funds will be forced to buy shares, creating a potential floor. Meanwhile, Sangdong's phase-1 production ramp-up begins in July. Despite the 21% haircut, the stock still boasts a 89% gain year-to-date and 376% over twelve months, suggesting patient investors may find the current pullback a compelling entry point.

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