Arafura Rare Earths Fires Starting Gun on Nolans as 13.6% Rally Greets Final Investment Decision

The first fully integrated rare-earth mine-to-oxide operation on Australian soil is officially moving ahead. Arafura Rare Earths delivered the final investment decision for its Nolans project on 21 May 2026, triggering a 13.6% spike in its shares to A$0.335 as investors digested a financing package that bridges the A$1.6bn capital requirement.

The project, located north of Alice Springs in the Northern Territory, is designed to challenge China’s stranglehold on the critical-minerals supply chain. Once operational, Nolans is expected to produce 4,440 tonnes of neodymium-praseodymium oxide annually — the key ingredient in permanent magnets for electric vehicles and wind turbines — alongside 470 tonnes of mixed heavy rare-earth oxide and roughly 144,000 tonnes of phosphoric acid suitable for fertiliser production.

A bank-led financing jigsaw

The green light came only after a complex funding structure fell into place. A syndicate of lenders has extended conditional commitments for $775m in senior debt, backed by an $80m cost-overrun facility. Export Finance Australia, the Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility, KfW IPEX-Bank, KEXIM Global, the Commonwealth Bank of Australia and ING are all on the lender list, with credit guarantees from Euler Hermes and KEXIM shoring up the arrangement.

On the equity side, Arafura has locked in approximately A$659m in commitments. The National Reconstruction Fund Corporation is chipping in around A$145m, and the German raw-materials fund has also taken a stake. The federal government has issued a non-binding letter of intent to purchase 500 tonnes of NdPr each year for the national strategic critical-minerals reserve — a move that underscores the project’s geopolitical significance.

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Offtake covers 80% of capacity before first shovel

Binding sales agreements already absorb 3,570 tonnes of NdPr per year — or 80.4% of planned output. Hyundai and Kia have together committed to 1,500 tonnes annually, Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy has signed for 520 tonnes, and commodities trader Traxys will take 800 tonnes. Export Finance Australia’s strategic-reserve offtake adds another 500 tonnes. The remaining 870 tonnes will be sold into the spot market.

Arafura estimates Nolans will meet roughly 4% of global NdPr demand once fully ramped up, making it Australia’s third-largest rare-earth producer. The mine has an initial life of 38 years, during which it is expected to contribute A$25.2bn to the Northern Territory’s gross product. Construction will create 600 jobs, while permanent operations will support 350 roles.

Timeline set for mid-2029 production

Earthmoving is scheduled to begin in September this year, with the build phase pegged at 30 months. That puts commercial production on track for the middle of 2029. Engineering, procurement and construction management (EPCM) has been handed to Hatch, marking Arafura’s transition from developer to builder.

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The project is also one of only two priority initiatives under the US-Australia critical-minerals agreement, giving it a direct line into Western efforts to diversify supply chains away from Chinese dominance. With finance locked in, offtake largely sewn up and the first load of earth due to be turned in a few months, Arafura’s long-shot wager on rare-earth independence is entering its most tangible phase.

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