As Lawmakers Lock 328,372 BTC for 20 Years, Institutional Money Flees to Broadcom's AI Ambitions

Bitcoin is caught between two radically different forces. The US Congress has just published the full text of a bill that would lock roughly 328,372 coins in a strategic reserve for two decades, yet capital continues to pour out of the digital asset in favor of AI infrastructure investments. The result is a market that looks technically washed out but fundamentally divided.

H.R. 8957, the American Reserve Modernization Act introduced by Representatives Nick Begich and Jared Golden with more than 20 bipartisan co-sponsors, would prohibit the sale, exchange, auction, or encumbrance of any Bitcoin in the strategic reserve for 20 years from the date of each deposit. After that holding period, the Treasury Secretary could sell at most ten percent of the holdings over a two-year window, subject to congressional approval. The bill also mandates quarterly cryptographic proof-of-reserve audits and independent oversight by the Comptroller General. Crucially, it prohibits new debt or taxes to acquire additional Bitcoin, instead instructing the Treasury and Commerce departments to explore budget-neutral options like converting other government assets or revaluing gold certificates within 180 days.

The reserve, established by executive order on March 6, 2025, already holds roughly $25 billion worth of Bitcoin. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told the Senate Finance Committee in early June that the administration aims to expand those holdings.

Legislative momentum, however, is colliding with a brutal macro reality. The May jobs report showed 172,000 new positions — nearly double the 88,000 forecast — sending the probability of a Fed rate hike from 40% to 57%. The chance of a June rate cut collapsed from 32% to just 8%. Bitcoin shed $80 billion in market cap on a single day as the dollar strengthened and real yields rose. Long positions worth roughly $1.21 billion were liquidated in the ensuing cascade, part of a total $1.5–1.6 billion forced unwind across the derivatives market.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Bitcoin?

The exodus from Bitcoin ETFs has been relentless. Spot products have recorded 13 consecutive trading days of net outflows since May 15, totaling $4.4 billion. Cumulative ETF inflows for 2026 have turned negative for the first time since the products launched. The broader shift is clear: while $60 billion flowed into Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasuries last year, only $12 billion has arrived in 2026. Investors are rotating into what they see as the decade's defining trade — artificial intelligence.

Apollo Global Management's $35 billion financing round for Broadcom's AI platform exemplifies the scale of that pivot. Bitcoin, by contrast, lacks the narrative energy of the AI megatrend. ETF flows alone now explain roughly 45% of weekly price movements.

Technically, the damage is severe. The 14-period RSI hit 15.5 on June 7 — its lowest since March 2020. At current levels around $63,250, the RSI reads near 26, and the price trades about 16% below its 50-day moving average. The "supply in loss" metric has risen to 10.46 million BTC, a threshold that historically coincided with late-stage capitulation zones before major recoveries. A weekend bounce from the $59,100 low lifted prices 6.5% to roughly $62,950, holding the 200-week moving average as support — a classic relief rally within a correction.

Bitcoin at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.

Long-term holders are responding differently. On-chain data shows they have added more than two million Bitcoin to their holdings in recent weeks, ending a two-and-a-half-year accumulation downtrend. They are buying the dip, widening the ownership base and reducing the market's dependence on short-term speculators.

Two events will determine which force prevails. The US Consumer Price Index release on June 10 could either confirm the hawkish shift or reverse it. The Federal Reserve's June 17–18 meeting will set the tone for the rest of the summer. Until the macro headwinds ease or the ARMA bill triggers fresh institutional buying, Bitcoin's price remains a hostage to ETF flows. The legislative reserve is locked for 20 years, but the market's next move depends on what happens in the next 20 days.

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