ASML Navigates TSMC’s High-NA Delay as Intel’s Apple Deal Opens a €4.6 Billion Window

The near-term outlook for ASML is splitting in two. While the world’s largest chipmaker TSMC has pushed the adoption of the next-generation EUV machines to at least 2029, a potential blockbuster alliance between Apple and Intel could suddenly fill the order book with systems worth billions. The Dutch lithography monopoly finds itself balancing a delayed technology upgrade against a fresh wave of demand from a resurgent rival.

TSMC’s decision to hold off on High-NA EUV for its A14 and A13 nodes means the most lucrative machines in ASML’s portfolio—each priced at roughly €350 million—will not contribute meaningfully to revenue until the back half of the decade. Instead, ASML is steering demand back toward its proven Low-NA EUV and DUV platforms. The company plans to deliver at least 60 Low-NA EUV systems in 2026 and ramp that to 80 by 2027. A technical upgrade is also in the works, designed to boost the throughput of existing EUV tools by 50% by 2030, effectively extending the lifespan of its current generation.

Yet a different force is stirring. Bank of America estimates that a partnership between Apple and Intel for iPhone processors and high-performance chips could require up to 15 additional EUV systems, translating into orders worth around €4.6 billion. Intel aims to scale its 18A and 14A process technologies and offer Apple an alternative to its near-total dependence on TSMC. A preliminary agreement valued at roughly $10 billion is on the table, though nothing has been signed. Still, the mere prospect is reshaping ASML’s order calculus.

The company’s underlying financial health remains robust. First-quarter 2026 revenue hit €8.8 billion, with a gross margin of 53% and net profit of €2.8 billion. ASML raised its full-year revenue guidance to between €36 billion and €40 billion, supported by strong order intake and sustained AI-driven chip demand. The gross margin for the year is forecast at 51% to 53%. The order backlog stood at €38.8 billion at the start of the year.

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That strength, however, was not enough to calm the market. On May 15, shares dropped nearly 5% in a single session, prompting downgrades to neutral from both Jefferies and Barclays. The catalysts were TSMC’s High-NA delay, combined with rising uncertainty over U.S. export controls—specifically the proposed MATCH Act. The stock, which has rallied roughly 94% over the past twelve months, now sits about 5% below its 52-week high of €1,363.60 reached in mid-May. A relative strength index of 37 suggests the pullback has pushed it into oversold territory.

Analysts remain broadly bullish on the longer view. Goldman Sachs has lifted its price target to €1,600, while UBS and Citigroup have targets in the €1,600 to €1,700 range, all citing ASML’s indispensable role in the semiconductor ecosystem and the AI boom. The next major catalyst is an official confirmation of the Apple-Intel deal; concrete orders would directly boost ASML’s order intake.

On the capital returns front, ASML remains predictable. A dividend of €7.50 per share has been proposed for the 2025 fiscal year, a 17% increase from the prior year. Share buybacks totaled €1.1 billion in the first quarter of 2026, with an additional €84 million in repurchases recorded in mid-April alone. Meanwhile, a restructuring is underway: the company is cutting around 1,700 management positions and has agreed on a social plan with unions.

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For now, ASML’s growth story is intact—only its timing has shifted. The real test will come when TSMC clarifies how the High-NA delay alters its ordering rhythm over the next two years, and whether Intel’s Apple-backed ambitions turn into hard purchase orders. Until then, the market is left weighing a delayed technology shift against an unfolding competitive shake-up.

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