ASML Slumps 5.75% From Record — But Analyst Targets Surge Past €1,900 on EUV Capacity Boom

The euphoria was short-lived. ASML shares hit an all-time high of €1,529.80 on 4 June, only to tumble 5.75% by Friday’s close to €1,429.40. The reversal was triggered by a double blow: a disappointing outlook from Broadcom that sparked a broad semiconductor selloff and a stronger-than-expected US jobs report that reignited rate-hike fears. Despite the setback, the stock still carries a year-to-date gain of roughly 45%.

Yet the very day ASML touched its record, two top-tier banks lifted their price targets in quick succession. BofA Securities raised its target from €1,710 to €1,921, maintaining a "buy" rating. Barclays followed suit, boosting its target from €1,575 to €1,900 with an "overweight" stance. Both cited increasing visibility on demand through to 2028 and ASML’s potential to expand EUV production well beyond current capacity constraints. JPMorgan had already upped its target to $2,200 from $1,813 days earlier, reiterating "overweight" and noting that the company’s message had become "significantly more positive." Morgan Stanley also chimed in, raising its price objective to €1,660 from €1,400, also with an "overweight" recommendation.

The bull case rests squarely on the EUV upgrade cycle. ASML has been accelerating the hiring of field technicians since the fourth quarter of 2025. Supplier Jenoptik reported strong lithography orders in the first quarter of 2026, and new cleanroom capacity is slated to come online by 2027. Aalberts has already invested in preparation for future EUV growth. BofA projects 2028 revenue of €58.9 billion, adjusted earnings per share of €59.54, and a gross margin of 56% — a sharp improvement from this year’s expected 52.6%. The most significant risks flagged are Chinese export restrictions and weaker-than-anticipated semiconductor investment momentum.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Asml?

While analyst optimism soars, the macro calendar this week is packed. Tuesday brings the US inflation reading for May, which will directly influence Federal Reserve rate expectations. High-multiple tech and chip stocks are particularly sensitive to such data. Wednesday sees the European Central Bank’s rate decision in Frankfurt — a key signal for ASML, given that its valuation hinges on future capital spending by the chip industry. The Fed’s own decision follows on 17 June. All these events could determine whether the recent pullback is a mere consolidation or the start of a broader reassessment.

Away from the numbers, ASML chief executive Christophe Fouquet took to LinkedIn to offer rare public commentary on the EU’s new technology package. He welcomed elements such as the Chips Act 2.0, the Cloud and AI Development Act, and an open-source strategy, but warned against excessive bureaucracy in steering strategic projects. Such initiatives “must fundamentally respond to the needs of industry” and should be proposed by companies themselves, he wrote, cautioning that the risk of overcomplication should be avoided. His remarks are among the first from a top European industrial figure on the bloc’s attempt to close the technology gap with the US and Asia.

On the technical front, Friday’s fall widened the gap to the record high, leaving the stock roughly 7% below its peak. The long-term trend remains intact, with the share price still trading a comfortable 11% above its 50-day moving average. A deeper slide toward that average at around €1,279 would signal a broader consolidation. The relative strength index sits in neutral territory, and the annualized volatility of nearly 49% leaves room for further swings in either direction.

Investors now await the next major catalyst: ASML’s second-quarter results on 15 July. The company has guided for revenue in a range of €8.4 billion to €9.0 billion and a gross margin of 51% to 52%. The outcome will test whether the operational momentum can withstand the twin headwinds of tightening monetary policy and sector-specific jitters. For now, the stock is caught between record-breaking analyst targets and a market that is suddenly asking whether the premium is still justified.

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