BioNTech's Pipeline Progress Can't Dispel the Shadow of Its Covid Past

The market's verdict on BioNTech is harsh and unambiguous. For every advance the company makes in oncology, investors seem to demand two more before they will reconsider the stock. At around €75.30, the shares have slumped nearly 9% since the start of the year and have lost roughly a fifth over the past twelve months. That puts them well below the 200-day moving average of €85.88 and leaves the relative strength index at a weary 37 – territory that typically suggests oversold conditions, yet without any sign of a buying stampede.

The core problem is a mismatch between narrative and execution. BioNTech wants to be seen as a broad oncology platform, deploying mRNA alongside antibody-drug conjugates and combination therapies. The market, however, still prices it as a waning Covid-vaccine play. At the recent ASCO congress, the company tried to shift that perception with concrete clinical data, but the stock barely flinched. The battle for credibility is being fought one trial result at a time, and the market is not easily impressed.

The most tangible catalyst came from the Pumitamig programme, developed with Bristol Myers Squibb. Mid-stage data from the ROSETTA-Lung-02 study showed that the bispecific antibody, when combined with chemotherapy, produced encouraging anti-tumor activity in patients with lung cancer. BioNTech is now expanding the drug’s testing into other solid tumours. Meanwhile, rival Moderna and Merck presented long-term follow-up for their melanoma therapy, confirming that mRNA can work in oncology. That validates the technology but also raises the bar: investors now expect differentiated, commercially relevant results – not just proof of concept.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying BioNTech?

Yet for all the scientific progress, the bears have legitimate concerns. BioNTech and BMS amended the study design so that progression-free survival is the sole primary endpoint, while overall survival remains a secondary measure. In a competitive landscape where regulators and doctors care deeply about hard survival data, that adjustment raises questions about the strength of the evidence. And even if the data were perfect, BioNTech has warned that it does not expect any oncology revenue until at least 2026. That leaves a long stretch in which the stock must rely on dwindling Covid-vaccine sales to fund a heavy R&D spend – an uncomfortable transition.

The current market capitalisation of roughly €19 billion captures this tension. It is too high for a speculative biotech startup, yet too low for a proven oncology heavyweight. Analyst consensus sees a target of around €107, implying that the stock is trading at a steep discount to professional expectations. That gap does not guarantee a rebound, but it suggests that the pessimism may already be pricing in a worst-case scenario that clinical data could refute.

BioNTech is caught in a credibility freeze. The science is moving forward, but the share price will not follow until the company delivers the kind of unambiguous, commercial-stage proof that the market now demands. Until then, the stock is likely to remain trapped between the legacy of its pandemic-era success and the promise of a pipeline that has yet to convince the investors who matter most.

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