Bloom Energy Stock Has Soared 1,259% in a Year. A $2.6 Billion AI Deal Just Added More Fuel — and More Risk.

Bloom Energy is surfing the AI infrastructure wave as hard as any stock on Wall Street. The fuel-cell maker just locked in a long-term contract with Nebius, the European cloud provider, that could generate up to $2.6 billion in service fees over a decade. The target: powering Nebius’s AI cloud with on-site electricity, bypassing the grid bottlenecks that have become the industry’s biggest headache. The first phase, 328 megawatts of installed capacity, is slated to go live later this year in three stages, each running for 10 years. Under the master fuel cell capacity agreement, Bloom will install, operate and maintain the systems — selling electricity, not just hardware.

The market wasted no time rewarding the deal. Bloom shares jumped 8% in after-hours trading on May 20 to $282.33, building on a year-to-date gain that already stood at 224.9% before the announcement. By the end of the following trading week, the stock had climbed further to $315.97, up 2.6% on that Friday alone after touching an intraday high of $326.68. Nebius, meanwhile, fell 1.2% to $217.21 — a reminder that the market sees the two sides of this infrastructure bet very differently.

But the Nebius pact is only the latest chapter in a story that has already turned Bloom into one of the most extreme performers in the market. Over the past 12 months, the stock has surged 1,259%. The rally found its firmest footing when Bloom reported a historic first quarter in 2026. Revenue jumped 130% to $751.1 million, and for the first time ever the company generated positive operating cash flow in Q1 — $73.6 million, swinging from a $110.8 million outflow a year earlier. Management raised its full-year guidance, now targeting revenue between $3.4 billion and $3.8 billion, a non-GAAP gross margin of roughly 34%, and non-GAAP earnings per share in a range of $1.85 to $2.25.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Bloom Energy?

Behind those numbers lies a backlog that has swelled to $20 billion, with $6 billion in product orders — up 2.5 times from the prior year. The Nebius contract complements a separate deal with Oracle that calls for up to 2.8 gigawatts of fuel-cell capacity, 1.2 gigawatts of which are already under contract. The Brookfield partnership for AI infrastructure alone contributed $373.3 million in Q1 revenue.

Yet even as the fundamentals strengthen, a fierce debate over valuation has erupted. The stock trades at roughly 80 times book value, with an EV/EBITDA multiple of 663. At the current price, the market capitalizes about ten times the top end of this year's revenue guidance. The 27 analysts polled by S&P Global may hand out a consensus "Buy" rating, but their price targets tell a very different story. The average sits at $237.38 — roughly 25% below the latest close. Targets range from RBC's bullish $335 to a bearish $55. JPMorgan, Baird and UBS have set targets between $251 and $267, while BTIG and Susquehanna cluster around $293-295. Several analysts have noted limited visibility beyond 2026, suggesting the current price already discounts years of future growth.

Insider activity has added another layer of tension. On May 14, Bloom's chief operating officer, chief commercial officer and chief accounting officer sold shares in a coordinated move at prices between $288.10 and $293.36, executing pre-arranged 10b5-1 plans for tax purposes. Over the past three months, insider sales have totaled $99.2 million. Not a single insider purchase has been reported. Morningstar raised its fair value estimate by 15% after the guidance upgrade, but the stock still trades well above that figure. Some analysts have downgraded their stance to "Neutral," advising investors to wait for a pullback.

What makes Bloom especially treacherous for momentum traders is its volatility. The stock typically moves 16% in a given week, making it more volatile than 90% of all US-listed equities. For every believer betting the AI power boom will keep fueling new contracts like the Nebius deal, there is a skeptic pointing to the valuation and the insider selling. The next litmus test will be execution — meeting the conditions to start the Nebius project, delivering the systems on schedule, and proving that the recurring revenue model can sustain the rally once the initial AI buildout matures.

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