BMW Hits New 52-Week Low as JPMorgan Stands by 100-Euro Target — June Sales to Decide Next Move

BMW shares have tumbled to their lowest level in a year, yet JPMorgan sees a 43% upside from current prices. The contrasting signals — a battered stock and a bullish analyst call — capture the tension hanging over Germany's premium carmaker as it navigates a punishing summer.

The stock touched a fresh 52-week trough of €68.96 on Monday, closing near €69.88. Since hitting a high of €97.90 in December 2025, the shares have lost more than a quarter of their value — a 27% year-to-date decline that has left the relative strength index at a deeply oversold 28.

JPMorgan analyst Jose Asumendi reiterated his "Overweight" rating on Monday with a price target of €100, arguing that BMW's AI strategy and falling capital expenditure after a record 2024 provide a solid foundation. He also pointed to the planned launch of an all-wheel-drive M2 in the second half of 2026 as a niche product that should support the high-margin M division.

However, Asumendi tempered short-term expectations. For the second quarter, he forecasts an operating margin of just 5.0% in the automotive segment — below the market consensus of 5.5%. He identified June sales figures as the crucial determinant for the quarterly result.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying BMW?

That cautious outlook mirrors the weakness already visible in the books. In the first quarter, BMW's China sales dropped around 10% as local EV makers aggressively targeted the premium segment with price cuts. Across the broader German trio of BMW, Volkswagen and Mercedes-Benz, combined sales in China fell 16% in Q1, leading to a 4.3% revenue decline and a 23.3% slump in operating profit — even as global auto sales edged up 1.7%.

New CEO Milan Nedeljkovi?, who took the helm in May, faces an additional layer of trade uncertainty. EU tariffs on Chinese-made EVs would hit BMW directly since the electric Mini is produced in China. Meanwhile, tightened rules of origin for EU-UK trade from 2027 could make production at the Oxford Mini plant uneconomical unless at least 45% of components come from the region.

Despite the headwinds, BMW has continued its share buyback programme, purchasing 630,000 ordinary shares in the week of June 1-5 at prices between €70.34 and €74.44. The stock now sits more than 17% below its 200-day moving average of €84.69 — a technical gap that often sparks short-term reversals, though past performance offers no guarantees.

BMW at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.

All eyes are now on June sales data as the next major catalyst. A miss could put further pressure on JPMorgan's already ambitious €100 target. The market will get its next clear readout with the half-year results.

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