Circus SE’s Leasing Strategy and US Shortcut Put the Spotlight on June’s Q1 Report

The market is not buying the story yet. Circus SE shares have shed more than half their value over the past year and currently trade at €7.59, roughly 35% below their 200-day moving average. The gap between the narrative — autonomous cooking robots for defence, retail and industry — and the revenue reality has never been wider. Revenue for 2025 came in at just €250,000, while management forecasts a leap to between €44 million and €55 million by 2026. That is a 200-fold jump, and the market is waiting for proof.

To bridge the credibility gap, Circus is rolling out a new leasing model that eliminates upfront investment for customers. For around €4,000 a month, clients such as REWE and Mercedes-Benz can deploy the CA-1 system without a capital commitment. The financing is backed by MM Fowleasing and Siemens Financial Services, and CEO Nikolas Bullwinkel says the model has already accelerated deal closures by 60% to 70%. A significant portion of new business is now flowing through this channel. Parallel to that, the company acquired Kitchen Robotics earlier in 2026, picking up NSF-certified components that skip years of US regulatory approvals. That move pulls the US market entry forward from 2027 to the second half of 2026, positioning Circus in a larger, less fragmented market. The deal came without liabilities, ongoing contracts or staff, making it a low-risk asset grab.

The first real test of whether these initiatives are converting pilots into paying contracts comes in June with the Q1 financial report. Circus has roughly 550 units in its order backlog from about 40 customers, including the German Bundeswehr, Lithuania and Ukraine. More than ten NATO countries are in active discussions. REWE is running a pilot in Düsseldorf and will decide on a wider rollout this autumn; Mercedes-Benz plans to deploy the system in its Sindelfingen canteen by summer 2026. The revenue target for the year rests on existing clients and a growing share of SaaS subscriptions. EBITDA is expected to land between -€6 million and -€8 million, an improvement from the -€15 million loss in the prior year. The June report will provide the first hard evidence of whether conversion rates are on track.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Circus?

Analysts covering the stock are unanimous on direction but divided on magnitude. Both Montega and mwb research rate the shares a buy. Montega initiated coverage in May 2026 with a twelve-month target of €10, assuming 170 CA-1 deliveries this year and 350 by 2028, with software revenue climbing above €50 million. mwb research is far more bullish at €46, reflecting a steeper production ramp. The average of the two targets is €35.20 — more than four times the current price. No analyst recommends selling. Both expect Circus to reach operating profitability in 2027, provided the production scale-up succeeds.

Technically, the stock is under pressure. The 200-day average sits at €11.66, while the 52-week high of €22.80 is 67% above current levels. The 14-day relative strength index is 41.8, still in neutral territory, and the 30-day annualised volatility stands at 43.86%. On the positive side, the 52-week low of €5.44 offers a floor roughly 40% below. The leasing model, the accelerated US entry via Kitchen Robotics, and the deepening ties with defence clients — including an April membership in the ETH AI Center alongside Google, Meta and Schneider Electric — all argue that the company is building infrastructure for a step-change. But the market will not reward the story until the numbers catch up. June’s Q1 report is the first credible signal that will determine whether the gap between ambition and revenue is closing or widening.

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Circus Stock: New Analysis - 30 May

Fresh Circus information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.

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