Deutsche Telekom's Stock Caught Between Merger Ambitions and a Buyback Hiatus
30.06.2026 - 02:45:08 | boerse-global.de
Deutsche Telekom investors are navigating a tricky juncture where two powerful forces are pulling in opposite directions. A looming multi-billion-dollar tie-up with T-Mobile US is fuelling speculation, but the simultaneous expiry of a key share repurchase programme has removed a reliable buyer from the market. The result: a stock under pressure, touching a fresh 52-week low of €24.18 on Monday before edging back to €26.10 — a level just 1.5% above that trough.
The latest downdraft began with a report in Handelsblatt suggesting that chief executive Tim Höttges is actively working on concrete plans for a full merger with T-Mobile US. Such talk has circulated since April, but the report hinted that preparations have moved to a more formal stage. That immediately raised two red flags for shareholders: the substantial regulatory hurdles in the United States — approval from both the FCC and the Justice Department would be required — and uncertainty about the future capital structure of the combined entity. Worries that any deal could dilute existing equity or saddle the group with higher leverage sent the shares sliding.
Compounding those concerns, the second tranche of the company's ongoing buyback programme ended exactly on Tuesday. Since early April, Deutsche Telekom had been purchasing its own shares under this tranche, with a total envelope of up to €550 million. In the final week alone (22-26 June), the group bought back roughly 1.7 million shares. With that support now gone, the stock loses a systematic buyer at a technically vulnerable moment. Management has flagged buybacks of up to €2 billion for the full year 2026, but the timing of the next tranche remains unannounced — leaving a gap in cushion at a time when the shares could use it most.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Deutsche Telekom?
Operationally, the Bonn-based telecoms giant continues to deliver. First-quarter revenue rose to nearly €29.9 billion, while adjusted EBITDA climbed 7.5% to €11.5 billion. Management has maintained its full-year guidance: adjusted EBITDA of around €47.5 billion and free cash flow of more than €19 billion. On the ground, the company added 173,000 new fibre connections in May, lifting the total number of reachable households and businesses to 13.4 million. Yet these solid numbers have failed to arrest the stock's slide. Since the start of 2026, the shares have lost more than 6% of their value.
The technical picture is equally bleak. The stock is trading roughly 14% below its level of 30 days ago and sits well beneath the 200-day moving average of €28.87. The relative strength index at 25.0 signals oversold conditions, which can trigger short-term speculative bounces but does not represent a sustainable reversal signal on its own.
Meanwhile, an era ended on 30 June: Deutsche Telekom, along with O2 and 1&1, finally pulled the plug on the MMS messaging service, following Vodafone. The move saves the cost of maintaining legacy infrastructure but has no material impact on the financial statements. For shareholders, the real drama remains the potential mega-deal across the Atlantic.
Clarity on both the operational trajectory and — possibly — official commentary on the merger plans is expected on 6 August, when the group publishes its second-quarter results. Until then, the stock faces a vacuum of support, with the previous annual low of €25.71 acting as a critical floor. A break below that level could open the door to further losses.
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