Fujikura Shares Crawl Back After „5.6 Trillion Wipeout as Patient Investors Weigh a Lengthy Turnaround
22.05.2026 - 00:53:28 | boerse-global.de
A dizzying two-week sell-off that erased more than „5.6 trillion from Fujikuraâs market capitalisation has given way to a tentative 4.8% bounce, with the stock closing at „4,501 on Thursday. The rebound, however, masks the scale of the damage: from an all-time high of „7,855 on 14 May, the optical-fibre bellwether shed roughly 40% of its value in just four trading sessions.
The wreckage began not with bad news but with a classic disconnect between blockbuster results and a guidance that fell far short of the aggressive expectations baked into the stock. For the year ended March 2026, Fujikura posted record revenue of „1.18 trillion â up nearly 21% â and operating profit of „188.7 billion, a 39% jump. Yet when management issued its first-half outlook, projecting just 6.3% revenue growth and a meagre 2% operating profit increase, the market balked. Analysts had been pencilling in triple-digit profit growth for a company widely viewed as a linchpin of the AI-infrastructure buildout.
Two days later, the medium-term plan through fiscal 2036 landed with a thud. The headline target of „580 billion in operating profit by that year was ambitious enough, but the nearer-term milestones â „264 billion for fiscal 2028 and „315 billion for fiscal 2029 â both undershot elevated consensus estimates. Institutional investors quickly concluded that the valuation, inflated by AI fantasies, could not be justified by such pedestrian intermediate steps. Adding to the malaise, rising Japanese interest rates put additional pressure on the entire technology and electronics sector.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Fujikura?
Capacity constraints are also weighing on the narrative. Morgan Stanley analysts point out that Fujikura expects to rely on externally sourced optical fibres for 15% to 20% of annual demand. Should the global appetite for AI-powered data-centre infrastructure accelerate faster than anticipated, the company could find itself supply-constrained. Managementâs answer is a capital allocation plan for 2027â2029 that earmarks „530 billion for strategic spending, with „260 billion directed specifically at Japan and the United States to expand in-house production of high-performance optical products. In Chiba, a new plant costing „40 billion is slated to begin operations in December 2030, and a US subsidiary will be incorporated in Delaware next June to facilitate direct infrastructure investments. The total fibre-optic expansion budget is capped at „300 billion.
Despite the share-price rout, Fujikura is forging ahead with technology aimed squarely at the AI data-centre market. A novel â3D-VCâ vapour-chamber cooling solution recently won an award from the Japan Heat Pipe Association, while a new 1,728-fibre Air Blown WTC cable â offering twice the core density of previous generations â targets the bandwidth-hungry links between cloud and AI networks.
Shareholders have been handed a decent consolation prize. The annual dividend for the past fiscal year has been more than doubled to „225 per share, up from „100, with the dividend payout ratio rising to 40% from 30%. The next payment is scheduled for 29 June 2026. A subsequent interim dividend of „19 per share is pencilled in for 30 September 2026, subject to the register date. Altogether, „220 billion has been set aside for shareholder returns under the new capital plan. At the 178th ordinary general meeting on 26 June, investors will also vote on a new equity-based compensation scheme for executives, designed to tie managerial incentives more closely to long-term stock performance and corporate value.
Whether these measures will be enough to restore confidence among the speculators who bet on exponential growth remains an open question. The real test will come with the half-year results this autumn, when the market will see whether Fujikura can deliver anything close to the runaway trajectory its stock once priced in.
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