Hensoldt’s Record Backlog and Tax-Advantaged Dividend Can’t Disguise the Cash Flow Strain
18.05.2026 - 08:31:25 | boerse-global.de
Hensoldt heads into its annual general meeting on 22 May with an enviable hand – a record €9.8bn order backlog and a 25% revenue surge in the first quarter – yet the stock is trading roughly 36% below its 52-week high. The market appears to be looking past the operational strength and fixating on the heavy investment bill that is squeezing free cash flow.
Shareholders will vote on a dividend of €0.55 per share, a 10% increase on last year’s payout. Because Hensoldt is distributing the sum from its tax contribution account, investors effectively defer the tax liability until they sell their shares – a feature that adds a layer of appeal for buy-and-hold holders. The ex-dividend date is set for 25 May.
Underpinning the cash flow pressure is a sprawling expansion programme. The company plans to invest roughly €1bn by 2027, including a new optronics facility in Aalen and the acquisition of Dutch specialist Nedinsco, a deal that is expected to close by mid-year and will be funded entirely from internal resources. Hensoldt is also adding 1,600 staff by the end of 2026, pushing the headcount past 10,000. On the technology front, the group has secured a long-term supply agreement for nearly one million gallium-nitride chips, a scarce building block for next-generation radar systems.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Hensoldt?
Those moves follow a strong start to the year. First-quarter revenue climbed 25% to €496m, while order intake doubled to €1.48bn, delivering a book-to-bill ratio of 3.0. The order backlog swelled 41% year on year to a fresh record of €9.8bn, driven by programmes such as Puma and Schakal and contract extensions for Eurofighter Mk1 radars. On the back of that momentum, management lifted the 2030 revenue target to €6bn. For the current year, guidance is unchanged: revenue of around €2.75bn and an adjusted EBITDA margin between 18.5% and 19.0%.
Yet the share price tells a different story. At roughly €73.82, the stock is down almost 12% from its 200-day moving average and has slipped slightly year to date. The recent 4% weekly advance pushed the relative strength index to 80.5, a reading that typically signals short-term overbought conditions. Analysts are split on the outlook: Deutsche Bank rates the shares a buy with a €101 target, while Stifel and Jefferies both see fair value at €90. J.P. Morgan is more cautious with a neutral stance and an €85 target.
With the half-year report due on 31 July, the central question for investors is whether the transition from record order intake to tangible cash generation can finally bridge the gap between Hensoldt’s operational momentum and its stubbornly subdued share price. The AGM on Thursday could provide a lively forum for that debate.
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