Hensoldt’s Software Ambitions Meet Record Orders — But Analysts Remain on the Sidelines

Hensoldt kicked off the ILA Berlin air show on Tuesday with a technology pivot that could redefine its identity. The defence group rolled out its MDOcore software suite, a networked drone-defence platform that links airborne, ground and naval sensors into a single battlefield picture. The message was clear: Hensoldt is no longer just a hardware house. Yet the stock barely budged, edging down 0.6% to €77.44 after briefly touching €78.42 earlier in the session — a microcosm of the tension between operational achievements and market scepticism.

Morgan Stanley has placed the European defence sector on “Equal-weight”, with strategist Marina Zavolock acknowledging the sector’s long-term strengths but warning that near-term earnings and price-target momentum has stalled. Citigroup added to the caution, also rating the sector “Neutral” and flagging a “peak-ammunition” risk — the idea that procurement cycles may have topped out. Two of Wall Street’s biggest houses, one cautious signal.

Meanwhile, Hensoldt’s order intake surged to €1.48 billion in the first quarter of 2026, more than doubling year-on-year. The order backlog hit a record €9.8 billion, while revenue climbed more than 25% to €496 million. The company raised its adjusted free cash flow guidance in early June, targeting around 50% of adjusted EBITDA, up from 40%, driven by higher customer prepayments as German procurement accelerates. Revenue and margin targets were left unchanged.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Hensoldt?

The group also closed the acquisition of Dutch specialist Nedinsco, which develops opto-mechatronic subsystems for armoured vehicles such as the Leopard 2A8, Puma and Boxer. Hensoldt expects the purchase-price impact on net debt to be offset by better cash conversion.

But the market is asking a pointed question: how fast can that record order book translate into profits? Cash flow upgrades and bolt-on buys are strong signals, but they have not yet acted as catalysts. The shares trade roughly 33% below their 52-week high of €115.10 and sit just under their 50-day moving average.

Technically, the picture remains strained. The stock is still below the 200-day moving average of €83.41 — almost 6% away. On a monthly basis, Hensoldt has clawed back a solid 10.70% gain, but the year-on-year decline stands at a painful 18.52%. Short-term momentum is positive, but without concrete contract wins tied to the new MDOcore software, the ILA Berlin buzz could quickly fade.

The next real test comes on July 31, when Hensoldt publishes half-year results. By then, the market will want to see whether production capacity and order volumes are finally growing in lockstep — and whether the software story can start generating hard revenue.

Ad

Hensoldt Stock: New Analysis - 9 June

Fresh Hensoldt information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.

Read our updated Hensoldt analysis...

en | DE000HAG0005 | HENSOLDT’S | boerse | 69509816 |