ITM Power: Retail Investors Bet Big While Institutions Flee — But June Carries the Real Weight

A brutal week wiped nearly 27% off ITM Power's market value, yet the stock snapped back 3.82% on Monday to trade at €1.74. The move higher was driven by a surge of retail buying — 63% of orders on one UK platform were purchases — but it wasn't enough to reverse the damage. Professional money managers offloaded positions with such force that individual investors were steamrolled. The disconnect between the two camps frames a pivotal month for the British hydrogen specialist.

The selling had multiple triggers, none of them rooted in the company's underlying performance. ITM Power's inclusion in the MSCI UK Small Cap Index at the end of May triggered a textbook "sell the fact" wave, with hedge funds that had built positions ahead of the rebalancing unwinding them aggressively. That was compounded by a fresh "sell" rating from Goldman Sachs — the bank lifted its price target from 55p to 63p, but maintained its recommendation, while sector contagion dragged the stock lower after Ballard Power slumped 19%, Plug Power fell roughly 12%, and Clean Power Hydrogen halted trading when an electrolyser was irreparably damaged. ITM Power was caught in the downdraft.

Three June Decisions That Could Rewrite the Story

All eyes are now on three catalysts due within the current month. The most consequential is the Competition and Markets Authority's decision on a £46.5 million government grant for the company's new automated stack production line, named Chronos. ITM Power has yet to make its final investment decision on the facility, pending that approval. Jefferies warns that a negative outcome would carry 52% downside risk. The same bank raised its price target to 200p from 115p, a bullish stance that sits in stark contrast to the bear case at Goldman Sachs.

The second catalyst is the UK's HAR2 hydrogen allocation round, which could award up to 875 MW of capacity. ITM Power is already named as the preferred supplier for two projects, but final purchase orders depend on the developers' investment decisions. The third is Uniper's final investment decision on the Humber H2ub project, for which ITM Power would supply six 20 MW modules. The front-end engineering and design contract is signed and planning permission was granted in March. Uniper targets a 2029 start, with first-phase green light expected this month.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying ITM Power?

Analyst Divide Reflects Sector Uncertainty

The range of analyst targets is staggering. Jefferies is at 200p, Berenberg holds a buy with a 110p target, Morgan Stanley expects EBITDA breakeven in fiscal 2028 — a year earlier than previously forecast — and UBS sits neutral at 60p. Goldman Sachs is the outlier with a sell recommendation and 63p target, questioning not the technology but the pace of commercialisation and the stock's valuation. The 137p spread between the highest and lowest targets illustrates the deep uncertainty surrounding the hydrogen market's trajectory.

Operational Progress Against the Grain

While the share price convulsed, the business itself delivered a string of positive numbers. First-half revenue for fiscal 2026 hit a record £18 million, prompting management to lift the full-year guidance to between £40 million and £43 million, a roughly 35% year-on-year increase. The order book stands at £152 million, of which 71% is considered profitable. The EBITDA loss narrowed from £16.8 million to £11.9 million in the first half.

Great British Energy, the UK government-backed investment vehicle, now holds a 10.4% stake after injecting £40 million, making it the second-largest shareholder. With the Chronos grant added, net liquidity is expected to reach £210 million to £215 million — a solid financial cushion for a company still burning cash.

ITM Power at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.

The index effect that fuelled last week's rout was a temporary technical factor, but the June catalysts will test whether the operational turnaround has real investment merit. The annual results are scheduled for September 15, 2026, by which time all three decisions should be known. If the grant comes through and both Uniper and the HAR2 projects reach financial close, the fundamental re-rating Jefferies envisions could gain traction. If any of them fall through, the 133% year-to-date gain that was still intact before last week's sell-off could evaporate quickly.

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ITM Power Stock: New Analysis - 8 June

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