ITM Power’s Retail Army Takes on the Institutions as Three June Catalysts Loom

A curious battle is playing out in ITM Power shares. While hedge funds and index trackers have been dumping the stock, retail investors on platforms like Interactive Investor have been piling in—on one day in early June, 63% of all orders in the name were buys. The result is a stock that has swung wildly, losing more than a fifth of its value in a week before clawing back some ground, and now sits at roughly €1.70, caught between a committed retail base and deeply skeptical institutional analysts.

The recent volatility did not stem from any company-specific disaster. Instead, it was a textbook case of three forces converging: the “sell the fact” phenomenon after ITM Power’s inclusion in the MSCI UK Small Cap Index at the end of May, a reaffirmed sell rating from Goldman Sachs, and a broader rout in the hydrogen sector. Ballard Power Systems tumbled 19% in a single session, Plug Power shed about 12%, and Clean Power Hydrogen suspended trading after irreparable damage to a pilot electrolyser. The sector-wide contagion pulled ITM Power down with it, even though its own operational news had been broadly positive.

The analytical community is deeply split on the stock. Jefferies stands at the most bullish end with a new price target of 200 pence, up from 115 pence, while Morgan Stanley now expects EBITDA breakeven in fiscal 2028—a year earlier than previously forecast—and Berenberg maintains a “buy” with a reduced target of 110 pence. At the other extreme, Goldman Sachs clings to a “sell” and a 63-pence target, arguing that ITM Power’s valuation still does not reflect the slow pace of commercialisation and profitability. UBS sits in the middle with a neutral 60 pence. The spread between the highest and lowest targets is so wide that the stock has become a proxy for the broader debate over whether the electrolyser industry can scale fast enough to justify its current market capitalisation.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying ITM Power?

Three specific decisions scheduled for June could tip the balance. The first is the UK Competition and Markets Authority’s ruling on a £46.5 million grant for ITM Power’s next-generation stack platform, Chronos. The company has said it will not make a final investment decision on the new automated production line until the grant is confirmed. Chronos is designed to deliver 2.5 MW per stack, cut capital costs by 40%, halve the physical footprint, and support an annual capacity of 1 GW at the Sheffield factory. A negative CMA outcome, Jefferies has warned, could knock 52% off the share price.

The second catalyst is the UK government’s HAR2 hydrogen allocation round, which could award contracts for up to 875 MW of capacity. ITM Power has been named as the preferred supplier for two projects, though both depend on final investment decisions by the developers. The third is Uniper’s Humber H2ub project in Killingholme, where ITM Power would supply six 20 MW POSEIDON modules in the first phase. Commissioning is targeted for 2029, and the total could eventually exceed 200 MW. A front-end engineering and design contract was signed in June 2025, planning permission was granted in March 2026, and a final investment decision for the first stage is expected this month.

Against this backdrop of binary decision points, the company’s operational metrics are steadily improving. Great British Energy, the UK state-backed investor, now holds 10.4% of ITM Power after injecting £40 million, making it the second-largest shareholder. The government grant, if approved, would push net liquidity to between £210 million and £215 million. Revenue in the first half of fiscal 2026 reached a record £18 million, and management has guided for full-year revenue of £40 million to £43 million—growth of roughly 35% year-on-year. The EBITDA loss narrowed to £11.9 million in the first half from £16.8 million, though the full-year loss is still expected to be in the £27 million to £29 million range. The order book stands at £152 million, with 71% of that considered profitable.

The stock’s year-to-date performance, up more than 130% from the January trough, shows that the market has already priced in a great deal of optimism. But the rally has been stress-tested by the sharp pullback from a high of €2.58, and the next few weeks will determine whether the turnaround story holds. ITM Power reports its full-year results on 15 September 2026. By then, the CMA grant, the HAR2 awards, and the Uniper FID should all be decided. Until those answers arrive, the stock is likely to remain a battlefield between the retail believers buying the dip and the institutional sellers taking profits.

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ITM Power Stock: New Analysis - 8 June

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