ITM Power's Technical Test Meets Operational Progress as Hydrogen Stock Hovers Above Key Moving Average

ITM Power finds itself at a crossroads. The shares have shed roughly a quarter of their value in just seven trading sessions, dragging the price to within a whisker of the 50-day moving average at €1.60. Yet behind the sudden sell-off lies a busy period of corporate activity — a new strategic partnership, three imminent regulatory decisions, and a balance sheet that has never been stronger.

The stock was changing hands at €1.61 on the latest count, barely 0.6% above that 50-day line. A decisive break below would open the door to the 100-day moving average at €1.17 and, further down, the 200-day at €1.00. But the long-term trend is far from broken: the current price still sits 61% above the 200-day, and the shares have more than doubled from the 52-week low of €0.65 set in early February.

A shift from pure equipment sales to project equity

While traders watch the charts, management is busy reshaping the business model. The company has entered a strategic alliance with green hydrogen developer Protium Green Solutions, marking a move beyond straightforward electrolyser sales into project participation. The first initiative under the deal is the Cromarty Hydrogen Project in the Scottish Highlands.

The facility is designed around a 15 MW electrolyser capable of producing roughly seven tonnes of green hydrogen daily. It will target industrial customers in the region, many of whom lack access to the natural gas grid. Protium, which recently secured state support from the UK’s first Hydrogen Allocation Round, will lead on power procurement, permitting and offtake. ITM Power will supply the electrolyser technology — either through its build-own-operate subsidiary Hydropulse or via a direct sale to Protium. A final investment decision is pencilled in for December 2026, and the project is expected to create around 30 local jobs.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying ITM Power?

Three June catalysts that could shift the narrative

The partnership lands in a month already loaded with potential inflection points. Most critical is the £46.5 million government grant for ITM Power’s automated production line at its Sheffield plant. The funding, part of a wider £86.5 million package, comes from the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero but still requires clearance from the Competition and Markets Authority. A decision is expected before the end of June.

The Sheffield line is designed to manufacture the next-generation Chronos electrolyser stack, which delivers 2.5 MW — triple the output of its predecessor — with 40% lower capital costs and half the footprint. Target annual capacity is 1 GW.

Two further decisions could also materialise this month: the award of projects under the second Hydrogen Allocation Round, where ITM Power is already named as the preferred supplier for two schemes, and the final investment decision on Uniper’s 120 MW project in Killingholme. All three outcomes could be known before the company reports full-year results on 15 September 2026.

Fundamentals improving, analysts divided

The operational picture has brightened considerably. Great British Energy holds a 10.4% stake after injecting £40 million into the company, making it the second-largest shareholder. Net liquidity stands between £210 million and £215 million. First-half revenue hit a record £18 million, and the full-year forecast sits at £40-43 million. The order book totals £152 million, with 71% of those contracts considered profitable. The adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed to £11.9 million.

Analyst views remain split. Jefferies raised its price target to 200 pence. Morgan Stanley now expects EBITDA breakeven in fiscal 2028, a year earlier than previously estimated. Berenberg retains a Buy rating but cut its target to 110 pence. UBS is neutral at 60 pence, while Goldman Sachs recommends selling with a 63 pence target.

ITM Power at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.

The technical picture: a market waiting for direction

The 14-day relative strength index sits at 40.3 — below the neutral 50 mark but far from the oversold territory that would signal exhaustion. The market has cooled, but the selling pressure has not yet reached extreme levels. A reversal from current RSI levels would support a recovery attempt; a further decline would keep sellers in control.

On the upside, the first meaningful obstacle is the previous day’s close at €1.69. A reclaim of that level would indicate that buyers are managing short-term damage. The 52-week high of €2.58, touched on 29 May, remains 37.6% away. With annualised 30-day volatility of nearly 93%, outsized daily swings are par for the course.

Retail investors have been stepping in: on 4 June, according to Interactive Investor, 63% of morning orders were buys. But the next few sessions will determine whether €1.60 acts as a floor or the shares are handed down towards the €1.17 level. The combination of technical tension and operational catalysts makes this one of the most consequential weeks for ITM Power in recent memory.

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ITM Power Stock: New Analysis - 9 June

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