June 9 Doubleheader: Almonty's Convertible Bond Settlement and AGM Collide as Tungsten Prices Surge 20%

Monday brings the calm before a storm of events for Almonty Industries. On June 9, the tungsten producer will simultaneously settle a massive $700 million convertible bond issuance and hold its annual general meeting — a confluence that has already rattled shareholders and sent the stock into a tailspin. The 21.04% plunge to C$22.70 on Friday reflected the market’s immediate verdict on the dilution, but the longer-term narrative hangs on whether the proceeds can capitalise on a sudden rally in tungsten prices and surging Western defence demand.

The convertible bond, maturing in 2031, carries a 2.25% coupon and a conversion price of roughly $27.40 per share — a 32.5% premium to the closing level on June 4. Institutional demand was so strong that the issue was oversubscribed. To cushion the dilution, Almonty is spending $83 million on capped-call transactions, while underwriters have an option to increase the total by an additional $100 million. Net proceeds from the base deal are pegged at $675.9 million, a figure that could rise to $772.7 million if the Greenshoe is exercised in full.

The capital injection is earmarked for three priorities: $50 million to retire existing debt, roughly $543 million for general working capital, and the remainder for expansion — chief among them the ramp-up of the Sangdong mine in South Korea. Phase 1, already running at 640,000 tonnes per year and producing around 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate, is set to begin its operational climb in July. Phase 2 aims to double capacity, targeting 4,600 tonnes of concentrate by 2027 and positioning Sangdong to meet as much as 40% of non-Chinese global demand.

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That ambition sits against the backdrop of a red-hot tungsten market. Prices for the metal surged about 20% in a single week after China tightened its export licensing system, throttling global supply. Europe’s price for ammonium paratungstate now ranges from $2,900 to $3,180 per metric tonne unit. The Pentagon has added further fuel: it has ordered defence contractors to source tungsten from outside China by January 2027, a mandate that places Sangdong at the heart of a strategic race. CEO Lewis Black has previously cautioned that building an independent Western supply chain could take a decade or longer.

The stock’s technical picture reflects the shock. At C$22.70, shares trade below the 50-day moving average of C$26.64 but remain well above the 200-day line of C$16.67. The relative strength index has fallen to 39.3, approaching oversold territory but not yet there. A partial cushion arrives on June 29, when Almonty will be added to both the Russell 1000 and Russell 3000 indexes, likely triggering passive buying from institutional funds.

Operationally, the company’s underlying trends are strong. First-quarter 2026 revenue tripled to $25.4 million, while EBITDA reached $6.1 million. Yet the convertible bond’s dilutive overhang — combined with the immediate 21% share price collapse — has set a high bar for management to convince investors that the Sangdong expansion will deliver returns commensurate with the equity hit. Tuesday’s annual meeting will be the first opportunity for shareholders to hear directly about Phase 2 timelines and whether the company can secure additional offtake agreements as Western defence clients scramble for alternatives to Chinese supply.

For Almonty, June 9 is not just a date on the calendar; it is a stress test of the proposition that a single mine can reshape the global tungsten map. The market has already priced in the dilution. The question now is whether surging commodity prices and Pentagon deadlines can swing the calculus back in the company’s favour.

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