MSCI’s Green Light and a $10 Billion Order Book: The Twin Engines Driving SpaceX’s $75 Billion IPO

SpaceX is approaching its long-anticipated stock market debut with a level of demand that has already forced underwriters to close the institutional order book. Bids from large investors have topped $10 billion, leaving the offering several times oversubscribed before a single share trades publicly. The consortia of banks, led by Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, BofA Securities, Citigroup and J.P. Morgan, stopped accepting fresh institutional orders on Monday evening to assess the pile-up and advise the company on final pricing.

The scale of investor enthusiasm, however, is only half the story. Index provider MSCI confirmed this week that SpaceX will qualify for early inclusion in its Global Standard Indexes upon listing on the Nasdaq. That decision sets off a different kind of demand: passively managed funds tracking MSCI benchmarks, which collectively oversee around $5.79 trillion in assets, will be forced to buy SpaceX stock within ten trading days of the debut. The contrast with S&P Global is stark. The operator of the S&P 500 rejected fast-track inclusion for SpaceX because the company posted a net loss of $4.94 billion in 2025, violating its profitability requirement. MSCI, by contrast, focuses primarily on market capitalisation and free float.

That free float is a point of contention. Estimates of the shares available for public trading range from less than 5% to around 7% — unusually thin for a company valued at roughly $1.8 trillion. The combination of forced passive buying and institutional oversubscription is expected to strain supply, at least in the early days of trading.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?

SpaceX is offering 555.6 million Class A shares at $135 each, which would raise approximately $75 billion and make it the largest IPO in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco’s $29.4 billion record from 2019. Up to 30% of the offering is reserved for retail investors — an exceptionally high allocation for an IPO of this magnitude. Online brokers in the UK, Germany, France, the Netherlands and other European countries have already started inviting clients to subscribe.

Despite the frenzy, the registration statement filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is not yet effective. Until it is, no shares can be sold and no purchase offers can be accepted. The final price is set for June 11, with the first day of trading scheduled for Friday, June 12, on both the Nasdaq Global Select Market and the new Nasdaq Texas exchange.

Operationally, SpaceX continues to scale rapidly. Revenue in 2025 jumped 33% to $18.67 billion, driven largely by Starlink, while the company ploughed cash into Starship development and AI-related infrastructure. Management has repositioned the company as an infrastructure business rather than a pure rocket manufacturer, projecting that Starship could cut launch costs per kilogram by as much as 99%. On Monday, a Falcon 9 booster flew and landed for the 35th time while deploying 29 Starlink satellites. Meanwhile, so-called AI satellites are already in production at the Bastrop, Texas facility.

The paradoxical picture — record demand alongside a multi-billion-dollar loss — underscores the challenge for investors. With a market capitalisation of $1.8 trillion, any disappointment in future earnings would leave little room for error. And even though the order book is stuffed, the real test begins on June 12, when early subscribers can freely trade their positions. Until then, the countdown continues.

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