Nebius Lifts Capex Forecast to $25B as Shares Outpace Analyst Targets on Back of Institutional Support

Nebius Group has ended the week on a high note, with its stock closing at $231.09 on Friday — a level that now sits marginally above the average analyst price target of $230.77. The milestone came after a 7.6% weekly gain, fueled by two catalysts that emerged within days of each other: a legal victory clearing the way for a major data center expansion and a high-profile institutional stake.

The Alabama-based court ruling on May 29 dismissed a lawsuit challenging the zoning approval for a 300-megawatt facility in Birmingham’s Oxmoor Valley. The 75-hectare site, backed by Alabama Power’s confirmed capacity, now moves forward with Nebius self-funding the necessary grid infrastructure. The project complements a previously announced campus in Independence, Missouri, underscoring the company’s aggressive push to scale its AI computing footprint.

Just one day earlier, the hedge fund Situational Awareness LP disclosed a passive holding of roughly 12.41 million Nebius shares — a position valued between $2.6 billion and $3 billion and equivalent to about 5.6% of the company. The fund, led by former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner, has grown to manage $13.7 billion and targets physical AI infrastructure and energy plays. The news sent Nebius shares up 8.62% on Thursday to a two-week high of $226.34, with another 2.1% follow-through on Friday.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nebius?

The stock has more than doubled since the start of 2026, gaining 130% in five months. The rally accelerated after the company reported first-quarter results in mid-May, which showed revenue of $399 million — a 684% surge year-over-year — and a swing to adjusted EBITDA of $129.5 million from a loss of $53.7 million in the prior-year quarter. That financial momentum has emboldened management to raise its capital expenditure forecast for 2026 to a range of $20 billion to $25 billion, up from a previous $16 billion to $20 billion, citing fully booked capacity.

Technically, the move has been swift. The stock’s relative strength index sits at 66.92, approaching but not yet in overbought territory. More telling is the gap to its moving averages: the 50-day average of $159 is now 49% below the current price, while the 200-day average of $112.59 trails by 108%. First support lies at Thursday’s close of $226.34, with the prior week’s settle of $214.77 below that.

Wall Street remains divided but broadly constructive. Of 15 analysts surveyed by S&P Global, Citi, Goldman Sachs and Northland Securities recommend buying, while D.A. Davidson and Morgan Stanley rate the stock a hold. Price targets range from $120 to $291, with a median of $248 — implying roughly 7% upside from current levels. Citizens JMP has an 'Market Outperform' rating and a $270 target, while BWS Financial rates it a 'Buy' with a more conservative $200 target. With a market capitalization of approximately $58 billion and $9.3 billion in cash on hand, Nebius has the financial firepower to execute its ambitious buildout — even as some analysts question whether the new valuation level can be sustained without continued operational proof points.

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Nebius Stock: New Analysis - 30 May

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