Nebius Secures Alabama Data Center Clearance as Aschenbrenner's $2.6 Billion Stake Fuels Rally

A court ruling and a hedge fund disclosure have given Nebius dual tailwinds heading into June. A judge in Alabama dismissed a zoning challenge on May 29, clearing the way for a 300-megawatt data center campus in Birmingham’s Oxmoor Valley. The decision came just one day after a Securities and Exchange Commission filing revealed that Situational Awareness LP, the hedge fund run by former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner, had taken a 5.6 percent passive stake in the company — worth roughly $2.6 billion at current prices.

The Alabama project, which will sit on a 75-hectare site in the Oxmoor Corporate Park, follows the start of construction last month on a far larger campus in Independence, Missouri. That gigawatt-scale development spans 400 acres and is expected to begin operating in the second quarter of 2027. Alabama Power has already confirmed the necessary electricity capacity for the Birmingham site, with Nebius financing the grid connection itself.

Hedge Fund Bet and Wall Street Divergence

Situational Awareness holds 12.41 million shares, making Nebius its largest single position. The fund, which manages roughly $13.7 billion, also owns stakes in CoreWeave, IREN, Bloom Energy and SanDisk. The filing explicitly states that activism is not planned. News of the stake sent Nebius shares more than ten percent higher on Thursday, with message volume on Stocktwits surging 212 percent and sentiment flipping from neutral to bullish.

The rally faces diverging analyst takes. Citi reiterated a Buy rating and a $287 price target, representing roughly 25 percent upside. D.A. Davidson, however, downgraded the stock from Buy to Neutral while keeping its target at $250, arguing that the valuation now looks fair and the near-term potential has been exhausted. Shares dropped nine percent on that note. Internal selling adds another layer of caution: 123.8 million dollars in insider sales over three months, with zero insider purchases.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nebius?

Revenue Explosion and Capex Acceleration

Behind the volatility, the business fundamentals are swinging into positive territory. First-quarter revenue hit $399 million, a 684 percent increase from a year earlier. The AI cloud segment grew 841 percent, and annualized recurring revenue (ARR) is approaching $2 billion. Adjusted EBITDA swung from a negative $53.7 million to a positive $129.5 million, good for a 32 percent margin. Management is targeting an ARR of $7 to $9 billion by the end of 2026.

The order book tells an even more striking story. Nebius carries close to $50 billion in contracted backlog, anchored by a $27 billion deal with Meta, Microsoft commitments of up to $19.4 billion, and a $2 billion strategic investment from Nvidia. To keep up with demand, Nebius has raised its 2026 capital expenditure forecast to a range of $20 billion to $25 billion, up from the prior $16 billion to $20 billion. The company says capacity is fully booked.

Cash Position and Valuation

With a market capitalization of roughly $58 billion, Nebius now rivals peers such as CoreWeave. The balance sheet offers some cushion: $9.3 billion in cash at the end of the first quarter. But with capex rising sharply, some analysts question how long the aggressive buildout can be sustained without diluting shareholders.

Nebius at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.

The stock closed Friday at $231.09, up 2.1 percent on the day and more than 130 percent higher year to date. Over the past twelve months, the gain stands at 444 percent. The price-to-earnings ratio sits at 68. For now, the combination of legal green lights, a specialized investor’s billion-dollar bet, and a pipeline of orders worth $50 billion is keeping momentum intact — but the next quarterly report will test whether the story can withstand the weight of its own ambition.

Ad

Nebius Stock: New Analysis - 30 May

Fresh Nebius information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.

Read our updated Nebius analysis...

en | NL0009805522 | NEBIUS | boerse | 69448890 |