Nel ASA Clears Legal Hurdle with Iwatani as New Electrolyzer Platform Faces Market Skepticism

The Norwegian hydrogen specialist has put one of its most distracting legal disputes to rest. Nel ASA reached a settlement with Iwatani Corporation of America over claims tied to California hydrogen refueling stations, agreeing to pay $7.5 million to end the litigation. Cavendish Hydrogen, a subsidiary, contributed an additional $3 million toward the resolution. Management framed the move as a strategic win, pointing to the elimination of future legal costs and a sharp reduction in litigation risk across the U.S. — while leaving the door open for future collaboration with Iwatani.

Investors reacted cautiously. The stock edged up 4.63 percent to EUR 0.27 on Monday, snapping a seven-day losing streak that had erased roughly 18 percent of its value. The bounce, however, lacked a fundamental catalyst. No new electrolyzer orders or partnerships accompanied the gain, and the session’s move looked more like a technical recoil than a vote of confidence in the business model.

That business model received a significant upgrade in early May, when Nel launched its next-generation pressurized alkaline electrolyzer. The system promises turnkey costs below $1,450 per kilowatt for a 25-megawatt installation, delivering hydrogen at 30 bar pressure with 99.99 percent purity. The company plans to industrialize production at its Herøya facility in Norway, targeting an initial annual capacity of 1 GW with a roadmap to scale to 4 GW. A grant of up to EUR 135 million from the EU Innovation Fund will cover as much as 60 percent of eligible development costs.

Yet the technology’s commercial traction remains elusive. Nel’s first-quarter numbers for 2026 painted a mixed picture: revenue from customer contracts slipped 5 percent to NOK 148 million, while the EBITDA deficit came in at NOK 100 million — an improvement of NOK 15 million from the same period last year. The order backlog stood at roughly NOK 1.1 billion, and the company held about NOK 1.4 billion in cash. After the quarter closed, Nel booked a $7 million PEM purchase order and signaled further PEM momentum before mid-year.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nel ASA?

Macro pressures are compounding the wait for order growth. A brutal session in Asian markets saw South Korea’s KOSPI plunge 8.37 percent, triggering a trading halt, while the Nasdaq composite fell more than 4 percent in response to robust U.S. payroll data. The economy added 172,000 jobs in May, pushing the probability of a U.S. interest rate increase in 2026 to 74.4 percent. Rising bond yields and the upcoming SpaceX IPO are draining risk appetite, hitting growth names like Nel especially hard.

Against that backdrop, the technical picture offers only modest reassurance. The relative strength index sits at 44.1, well clear of overbought territory. The share price has held above its 50-day moving average of EUR 0.26 and sits comfortably above the 200-day line of EUR 0.21 — a sign of stabilization rather than a fresh uptrend. But the stock remains 26 percent below its 52-week high of EUR 0.37, and the annualized 30-day volatility of more than 100 percent underscores how jittery hydrogen equities have become.

Analysts, for their part, remain largely unimpressed. The consensus price target stands at 2.118 Norwegian kroner, with a median rating of “underperform.” The recent rally had briefly pushed the stock to EUR 0.36 before retreating, underscoring the market’s whipsaw behaviour.

Nel ASA at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.

The path forward will likely be determined by what Nel’s management delivers on the commercial front — whether it can convert its upgraded platform into binding customer contracts. A clear order win in the first half of the year would speak louder than any technical bounce or legal settlement. The next few days bring data points that could tilt sentiment: U.S. consumer prices on June 10, producer prices on June 11, and the European Central Bank’s monetary policy decision in between. For Nel, those releases may prove to be the decisive catalysts in a week already packed with cross-currents.

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Nel ASA Stock: New Analysis - 8 June

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