Nel ASA Faces a Credibility Gap as Orders Shrink While Technology Promises Shine

The diverging trajectories at Nel ASA have rarely been starker. On one side, a breakthrough electrolyzer platform and a deep-pocketed strategic partner are raising hopes that green hydrogen projects can finally achieve bankability. On the other, the order book keeps shrinking — and the market is losing patience. The stock closed Friday at €0.26, capping a 26% weekly rout that erased much of a stellar year-to-date gain. The shares still sit about 35% higher since January, but the sell-off shows how quickly sentiment can turn when commercial traction fails to keep pace with technological ambition.

The numbers behind the slide are sobering. Nel booked just 85 million Norwegian kroner in new orders during the first quarter, a collapse of 73% compared with the prior year. The order backlog consequently shrank 24% to 1.113 billion kroner, and management has conceded that current volumes are insufficient to keep the factory running at adequate utilisation rates in 2027. Revenue from customer contracts slipped 5% to 148 million kroner. Even though the net loss narrowed and the EBITDA deficit improved to minus 100 million kroner — 15 million better than a year ago — the market fixated on the lack of buying signals. No analyst currently rates the stock a buy.

What makes the order weakness so jarring is the strength of the technology story. At the World Hydrogen Summit in Rotterdam, Nel and Samsung E&A unveiled CompassH2-A+, an industrial-scale solution for pressurised alkaline electrolysis. The system is designed for 100-megawatt plants using containerised 25-megawatt stack modules, produces hydrogen at 15 barg, and cuts the required plant footprint by 50% compared with alternatives. More important than the hardware is the guarantee structure: Samsung E&A wraps electrolyser stacks, balance-of-plant equipment and utilities into a single performance warranty with one counterparty, removing the fragmented liability that has long stymied project financing. A long-term service agreement covers operations, scheduled stack replacement and real-time monitoring. The pre-engineered platform also compresses the pre-FID engineering phase, potentially accelerating final investment decisions.

Samsung’s commitment runs deep. The Korean engineering conglomerate owns 9.1% of Nel — making it the largest single shareholder — and holds a board seat. The partnership represents a powerful endorsement, but it has yet to translate into a flood of large-scale orders.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nel ASA?

Nel does have operational bright spots. In March, it commissioned an off-grid green hydrogen plant in Korea that can serve as a reference for its alkaline platform. A follow-on order for containerised PEM units worth $7 million soon followed, and the current quarter already carries a booked order of around 70 million kroner. On the technology roadmap, Nel plans to build a prototype stack in 2026 for a new PEM platform that it says will cut stack costs by 70%, with commercialisation targeted for 2028 or 2029. A concrete customer win came from Douglas County Public Utility District in Washington state, which will use a Nel system from the first half of 2027 to stabilise the grid with surplus hydropower.

Financially, the company has time. Cash and equivalents stood at roughly 1.44 billion kroner at the end of March, supplemented by an expected €11 million EU grant tied to the industrialisation of the pressurised alkaline platform. The balance sheet provides a buffer against the order drought, but it does not substitute for commercial momentum.

Even the structural support from thematic ETFs offers only limited comfort. Two Global X hydrogen funds together hold more than 30 million Nel shares, each weighting the stock at about 5.1% as of late May. That passive demand can cushion the downside but cannot reverse a fundamental reassessment of the investment case.

Nel ASA at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.

The next hard test arrives on July 15, when Nel releases its half-year results. The market will scrutinise whether the technology announcements and the Samsung alliance are converting into binding commitments. If they are, the recent sell-off will look like a correction in a still-valid rally. If not, the stock’s relative strength index of 40.5 still has room to fall further as investors reprice the gap between promise and proof.

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