Nel ASA’s Samsung-Backed Electrolyzer Targets Bankability as Order Book Shrinks by Nearly a Quarter

Nel ASA shares have staged a remarkable recovery this year, surging roughly 83% since January to trade at €0.35 — just a whisker below the 52-week high of €0.36 touched in late May. Yet beneath the surface of this rally, the Norwegian electrolyser maker’s operating reality tells a more sobering story. First-quarter orders tumbled 73% year-on-year to just 85 million Norwegian kroner, while the order backlog contracted 24% to 1.1 billion kroner. Management has acknowledged that current bookings fall short of what’s needed to sensibly utilise capacity in 2027.

The stock’s resilience owes much to a technological breakthrough unveiled at the World Hydrogen Summit in Rotterdam. In partnership with South Korea’s Samsung E&A, Nel launched the CompassH2-A+, a 100?MW pressurised alkaline electrolyser system configured in 25?MW containerised modules that require roughly 50% less footprint than conventional designs. The real game-changer, however, is Samsung’s decision to offer a unified full warranty covering the entire plant, including the stacks — a first for the sector. Previously such guarantees were fragmented across multiple suppliers, making project financing difficult. This bundled approach boosts bankability, a critical selling point for developers and their lenders.

CompassH2-A+ is the third product in the CompassH2 family, joining the atmospheric alkaline and PEM variants. It builds on Nel’s new pressurised alkaline platform, which entered commercial service in May after more than eight years of development and successful prototype testing at Herøya, Norway. Nel targets turnkey costs below $1,450 per kilowatt for a 25?MW installation, claiming a 40% to 60% reduction in upfront capital expenditure versus current market alternatives. Production capacity at Herøya is initially set at 1 GW per year, with a roadmap to quadruple that to 4 GW. CEO Håkon Volldal says he is in active talks with multiple potential customers for projects of 50–150 MW in Europe and North America.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nel ASA?

Those efforts come against a backdrop of stark financials. Nel’s first-quarter revenue slipped 5% year-on-year to 148 million kroner, while the EBITDA loss narrowed by 15 million kroner to minus 100 million. The company holds 1.4 billion kroner in cash — enough, it says, to last until the end of 2026. It has also slashed its workforce by 26% from the peak to around 300 employees, cutting personnel costs by 21%. Management cautions, however, that those reductions have eroded manufacturing and project execution capacity. Within the group, the alkaline division posted a 6% revenue rise and a 35 million kroner EBITDA improvement, while the PEM unit saw sales drop 14%, blamed on delayed or cancelled US subsidy programmes.

Analysts remain firmly on the sidelines. Of the 13 covering the stock, seven rate it a sell and six a hold; not a single one recommends buying. Their average price target stands at 2.12 Norwegian kroner — roughly 45% below the current level of around 3.85 NOK at the prevailing exchange rate. The disconnect between the share price and the order book has made the July 15 half-year report a pivotal moment. It will be the first chance for investors to gauge whether the Samsung partnership has translated into concrete orders.

Nel also expects to receive an €11 million EU grant in the second quarter of 2026 to support industrialisation of the pressurised alkaline platform — a modest but welcome liquidity boost. Further out, the company is developing a next-generation PEM stack targeting 70% lower costs, though commercial readiness is not expected before 2028 or 2029. For now, the burden falls on CompassH2-A+ to convert conference-room buzz into signed contracts. Without that, the gap between a doubling stock and a shrinking order book will become increasingly hard to explain.

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