Nel ASA: Technology Leap Meets a Hard Correction as Orders Dwindle

Nel ASA’s shares closed at €0.26 on Friday, shedding nearly 13% in a single session and wiping out 26% over the course of the week. The selloff came without a company-specific trigger — no profit warning, no financing step, no cancelled contract. Instead, the market appeared to be reassessing the stock’s recent rally against the backdrop of a rapidly deteriorating order book.

The stock had scaled a 52-week high of €0.37 as recently as 25 May, meaning it now trades roughly 29% below that peak. Despite the savage weekly loss, the year-to-date gain remains a healthy 35%, and the current price sits 22.5% above the 200-day moving average of €0.21. The relative strength index at 40.5 signals waning momentum but not oversold territory.

A cutting-edge platform, but no commercial proof yet

The most significant operational development in recent weeks came from Rotterdam, where Nel and its largest shareholder, Samsung E&A, unveiled CompassH2-A+ on the sidelines of the World Hydrogen Summit. The solution is a 100-megawatt industrial-grade alkaline electrolysis system built around containerised stack modules of 25 megawatts each. It operates at 15 barg and claims a 50% reduction in plant footprint versus competing designs.

For project developers, the key innovation lies in the guarantee structure. Samsung E&A consolidates electrolyser stacks, balance-of-plant equipment, and utilities under a single performance warranty from one counterparty — directly addressing the fragmented guarantee landscape that has historically complicated project financing. A long-term service agreement covers operations, scheduled stack replacements and real-time monitoring. The pre-engineered platform also shortens the pre-final-investment-decision phase by eliminating early-stage engineering work.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nel ASA?

The partnership is entrenched: Samsung E&A holds a 9.1% stake in Nel and now has a seat on the board. Yet the stock’s violent reaction indicates that investors believe technology alone cannot compensate for the absence of large, binding purchase orders.

Order intake plunges 73%, backlog shrinks further

Nel’s first-quarter figures paint a stark picture. Revenue from customer contracts fell 5% year on year to 148 million Norwegian kroner, while total revenue and other income reached 152 million kroner. EBITDA improved by 15 million kroner to minus 100 million kroner — still deep in negative territory.

The real damage is in the order book. New orders booked in the quarter totalled just 85 million kroner, a 73% plunge from the same period a year earlier. The order backlog shrank to 1.113 billion kroner, down 24% from the prior year and 16% from the preceding quarter. Management has acknowledged that the current backlog is insufficient to keep the company’s factory adequately utilised in 2027.

There are isolated bright spots. In late April, Nel’s US subsidiary received a $7 million follow-on order for containerised PEM units from an American utility. In March, the company commissioned an off-grid green hydrogen plant in South Korea that can serve as a reference for the alkaline platform. For the current quarter, Nel has already booked around 70 million kroner in orders.

Nel ASA at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.

Cash pile buys time, but the July verdict looms

Nel’s balance sheet provides a buffer: approximately 1.4 billion kroner in cash and equivalents at the end of the first quarter. Two Global X hydrogen ETFs collectively hold more than 30 million Nel shares, with the US and European funds weighting the stock at 5.12% and 5.13% respectively as of late May. That thematic fund demand offers some structural support, though it is no guarantee against further downside.

The next major catalyst is the half-year report due on 15 July. A two-week blackout period begins in early July, during which management will be tight-lipped. By then, the market will be looking for signs that the Samsung platform is converting into tangible commercial orders. If the order intake improves, the recent selloff will look like a healthy correction in a long-term growth story. If it stays weak, the 26% weekly drop may prove to be only the beginning of a more fundamental repricing.

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