Novo Nordisk’s CagriSema Falls Short, but New Pill and Longevity Data Offer a Counter-Narrative

Novo Nordisk’s stock continues to trade under a gloomy cloud, down around 46% from its 52-week high of over €70 and currently hovering near €35.83. That steep decline masks a strikingly different story on the commercial side: the oral version of Wegovy has racked up more than three million prescriptions since its US launch in January, with 82% of those users being entirely new patients who did not previously take the injectable form. The Danish drugmaker is effectively expanding the market rather than cannibalising its own sales — a dynamic the equity market seems determined to ignore.

Competition data deliver a mixed bag

Investor focus remains fixed on the competitive landscape, and the recent ADA conference in New Orleans provided both setbacks and glimmers of hope. The highly anticipated CagriSema combination fell short of Eli Lilly’s Zepbound in a head-to-head trial: after 84 weeks, CagriSema achieved a 23% weight loss, while Lilly’s drug delivered 25.5%. Meanwhile, Eli Lilly’s Retatrutid has shown weight reductions of up to 28%, and its oral candidate Orforglipron outperformed oral semaglutide in phase 3 trials on blood sugar control.

But Novo Nordisk’s pipeline is hardly barren. The investigational drug Zenagamtide, tested in over 250 adults with type 2 diabetes, produced a 14.6% weight loss at the highest dose in a phase 2 study, with no plateau effect observed. A phase 3 programme is slated to begin in the second half of 2026, with initial results expected no earlier than 2028.

A pivot toward longevity and aesthetics

CEO Mike Doustdar used the ADA platform to articulate a broader strategic vision that goes beyond weight loss. Data presented at the conference showed that semaglutide protects key organs — heart, liver, and kidneys — independently of its effects on body weight. Researchers used experimental “protein clocks” to demonstrate that the treatment reduces the biological age of these organs. Doustdar also confirmed plans to expand into skincare and hair-loss treatments, positioning Novo Nordisk as a player in the longevity and aesthetic medicine space.

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This shift is designed to reduce the company’s heavy reliance on diabetes and obesity, and to build what some analysts describe as a defensive moat around the concept of healthy ageing. While Eli Lilly currently holds the crown for maximum weight loss, Novo Nordisk is trying to redefine the battlefield.

Buyback fails to impress

The management’s confidence is underlined by a 15 billion Danish kroner share buyback programme running until February 2027. By early June, the company had already spent nearly 5 billion kroner on its own shares. Yet the stock has barely budged. The relative strength index sits around 43, indicating no overbought conditions, and the price is clinging to its 50-day moving average of roughly €35.96 — just a hair above current levels.

The bigger picture

Market projections suggest the global obesity treatment market could reach $150 billion annually within a decade, a size that experts argue can accommodate multiple winners. The “winner-takes-all” scenario that many investors fear may be overblown. Novo Nordisk’s own CagriSema pipeline still shows solid results, with phase 3 data indicating over 14% weight loss.

Novo Nordisk at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.

Still, the stock’s gap between commercial reality and market sentiment remains gaping. The company is firing on multiple fronts — a blockbuster pill, a longevity thesis, and a record buyback — yet the share price reflects a deeply traumatised investor base. Until further clinical milestones are validated, particularly for Zenagamtide and the longevity story, the market is unlikely to fully reprice Novo Nordisk’s potential.

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