Novo Nordisk’s Pill Milestone of 3 Million Scripts Can’t Outweigh a 46% Share Plunge

Novo Nordisk’s oral Wegovy pill has been issued three million times since its US launch in January 2026, averaging one prescription every five seconds over five months. The commercial firepower is real. Yet the stock sits at €35.82, a whisker below its 50-day moving average of €35.96, and has surrendered nearly 46% over the past twelve months. The paradox is stark: a product that flies off pharmacy shelves cannot lift the equity off the mat.

The market’s gaze has fixed on the competitive landscape, not the prescription count. Eli Lilly’s retatrutide pipeline is widely viewed as a direct threat to Novo Nordisk’s GLP-1 stronghold, while AstraZeneca is also advancing oral candidates. More than 90% of the Danish drugmaker’s revenue flows from diabetes and obesity treatments — a concentration risk that has become harder to ignore. At the recent American Diabetes Association conference, CEO Mike Doustdar outlined a shift into longevity and aesthetic medicine as a way to loosen that dependence. The profitability of that pivot, however, remains unproven.

The earnings picture adds to the gloom. Management has guided for a revenue decline of up to 13% this year, undershooting analyst expectations. And from January 2027, Novo Nordisk will cut US list prices for key semaglutide brands — a move that signals intensifying pricing pressure even as volumes expand.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Novo Nordisk?

Technically, the charts tell a bearish story. The 50-day line has crossed below the 200-day average, forming a classic death cross that confirms the long-term downtrend. The 100-day average sits at €37.93, and the 200-day at €41.56 — both well above the current price. The 52-week high of €70.13 is now nearly 49% out of reach. On the downside, the 52-week low of €30.25, reached in early March 2026, remains the last structural floor. The relative strength index at 41 indicates neutral-to-weak momentum; selling pressure has eased but buyers have yet to step in. Annualized volatility of nearly 34% suggests that calm is not in the offing.

• Key levels to watch: Reclaiming the 50-day moving average at €35.96 is the first hurdle. A break above the 200-day at €41.56 would signal a potential trend shift. Below €30.25, the stock would enter uncharted territory with no nearby support.

The company has tried to steady the ship with a massive share buyback program that has funneled billions into the market since February. Yet the €168 billion market capitalization continues to shrink. The disconnect between operational success and market sentiment leaves Novo Nordisk trapped in a range — with a concrete floor at the March low and a technical ceiling at the moving averages. Until one of those boundaries breaks decisively, the stock’s dual narrative of strong sales and eroded confidence looks set to continue.

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Novo Nordisk Stock: New Analysis - 9 June

Fresh Novo Nordisk information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.

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