Novo Nordisk’s Stock Stuck in a Death Cross as Oral Wegovy Hits 3 Million Scripts

While Novo Nordisk’s pipeline continues to churn out clinical wins, its share price tells a far grimmer story. The stock is trading around 49% below its 52-week high of €70.13, and a textbook death cross has formed on the chart. The disconnect between operational milestones and market sentiment has rarely been sharper.

The oral version of Wegovy (semaglutide 25 mg) has raced past three million prescriptions since its US launch on January 5, 2026. The first million took twelve weeks; the next two million arrived in only ten weeks, averaging one script every five seconds. Crucially, more than 80% of patients had never taken a GLP-1 drug before – a sign of genuine new-user acquisition. However, a Medicare programme coming into effect on July 1, 2026 will cap monthly costs at $50 for eligible patients, supporting volume but squeezing margins.

At the ADA congress in New Orleans, CEO Mike Doustdar laid out a strategy going far beyond weight loss. Novo Nordisk aims to position semaglutide as an agent that reduces the “biological age” of the heart and kidneys. Experimental protein clocks suggested organ-protective effects, and the company is also exploring applications in aesthetic medicine, including skincare and hair loss. Post-hoc analyses of the SELECT study – involving over 17,000 patients – showed a 42% reduction in asthma events, a 52% lower risk of sleep apnoea complications, and an average systolic blood pressure drop of 5.48 mmHg.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Novo Nordisk?

But the company’s broad ambitions are running into stiff headwinds. Management has flagged a potential revenue decline of up to 13% this year, undershooting analyst expectations, and will cut US list prices for key semaglutide brands from January 2027. The moves underline persistent pricing pressure in the GLP-1 market.

That pressure is largely coming from Eli Lilly. On the same day Novo Nordisk presented its data, Lilly unveiled phase 3 results for retatrutide showing up to 28% weight loss after 80 weeks. Its oral candidate, Foundayo, outperformed oral semaglutide in the Achieve-3 study on both blood sugar control and weight reduction. Novo Nordisk’s own next-in-line candidate, CagriSema, met primary endpoints in phase 2 diabetes trials – HbA1c down 1.91%, weight down 14.2% – but an FDA decision is not expected until the fourth quarter of 2026.

The stock’s technical picture reinforces the gloom. At €35.92, shares are trading just below their 50-day moving average of €35.96. That average has fallen beneath the 200-day line, forming what technicians call a death cross – a classic confirmation of a long-term downtrend. The relative strength index stands at 40, indicating room for further selling before the stock becomes oversold. The year low of €30.25 is the last structural support; a break below that level could open the door to a multi-year decline.

Novo Nordisk has tried to prop up its valuation with a DKK 15 billion share buyback programme. As of early June, it had repurchased roughly 18.76 million B-shares – a signal that management considers the current price cheap. So far the market disagrees, and the company’s market capitalisation has shrunk to around €168 billion. The tug-of-war between strong clinical data and relentless competitive and pricing pressure remains unresolved, with investors counting down to the FDA’s CagriSema verdict later this year.

Ad

Novo Nordisk Stock: New Analysis - 9 June

Fresh Novo Nordisk information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.

Read our updated Novo Nordisk analysis...

en | DK0062498333 | NOVO | boerse | 69506931 |