Nvidia Nears Earnings Amid Conflicting China Signals and Sky-High Analyst Targets

Wall Street is bracing for Nvidia's fiscal first-quarter results on Wednesday, but the semiconductor giant faces a perplexing China puzzle that has split the narrative just days before the numbers land. While the US administration reportedly authorised shipments of H200 chips to ten Chinese companies including Alibaba, Tencent and ByteDance, President Donald Trump confirmed after a Beijing summit that China itself has blocked domestic firms from purchasing those very chips — choosing instead to develop homegrown alternatives despite existing US export licences. The contradictory signals have left investors guessing: the stock has slipped roughly 4.4% over recent sessions, trading at around €188 to €196 depending on the exchange, roughly 3–6% below the record high struck on May 14.

Analysts lift targets on Blackwell momentum

That dip hasn't deterred the analyst community. DA Davidson and KeyBanc Capital Markets both raised their price targets to $300, representing a hefty premium over the last US close of $225.32. KeyBanc specifically cited Blackwell GPU shipments of 150,000 to 200,000 units per quarter, which it estimates could generate between $5 billion and $7 billion in incremental revenue. Morgan Stanley followed with a $285 target, while Aletheia Capital set its valuation at $270. Goldman Sachs went even further conceptually, publishing a 17 May analysis that floated a long-term revenue target of $1 trillion for Nvidia's data centre business alone, driven by the rise of "agentic AI" — autonomous systems capable of independent reasoning and task execution.

Earnings expectations are sky-high

The Bloomberg consensus forecasts adjusted earnings per share of $1.77 on revenue of roughly $79 billion for the April quarter, a year-on-year jump of about 79%. The data centre segment is expected to contribute around $73 billion, up 87% from a year earlier, while the gross margin is pegged at approximately 75%. The options market is pricing in a swing of more than 10% after the release. Yet some analysts see slightly lower top-line numbers: a separate Wall Street consensus puts revenue at $78 billion, a 77% increase, with data centre alone exceeding $65 billion as Blackwell ramps up.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nvidia?

What really matters: the second-half outlook

The real tension lies not in the beaten quarter but in the guidance for the second half of 2026. Investors will be listening for three things: production yields and delivery schedules for the GB200 Blackwell systems; the status of the Vera Rubin platform, which is slated for mass production by late 2026; and the sovereign AI programmes that analysts estimate at over $30 billion for the full year. CEO Jensen Huang was in Beijing on Monday for the Trump-Xi summit, where reports suggest Nvidia discussed a 2026 AI investment plan worth more than $40 billion. Huang has been blunt about US export controls, warning that total bans on AI chips to China would undermine America's lead in semiconductors.

Nvidia is also expanding its infrastructure. A multi-billion-dollar partnership with Marvell Technology aims to integrate custom XPUs and networking solutions into the NVLink Fusion platform. Blackwell production at TSMC continues to ramp, and total AI spending by the big cloud providers could reach $725 billion, according to recent estimates — a tailwind that directly supports Nvidia's order book. Whether the stock can justify its elevated expectations will hinge on whether management can deliver not just a strong quarter, but a convincing vision for Vera Rubin and the agentic AI era.

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