Nvidia’s $80 Billion Buyback Puts 174.40 Support to the Test as Political Headwinds Intensify

Nvidia’s board authorized an $80 billion share repurchase program and hiked the quarterly dividend from $0.01 to $0.25, a move that telegraphs unshakeable confidence in near-term cash flows. Yet the stock lost more than 5% on Friday, closing at €178.08 and giving back nearly two euros from the session lows. The contrast between corporate bravado and market skittishness sets up a critical week ahead.

The Friday decline was driven by more than routine profit-taking. A cocktail of macro uncertainty, fresh China export control worries, and insider selling weighed on sentiment. CEO Jensen Huang is scheduled to testify before the Senate on June 11 regarding compliance with chip export rules to China, while a board member sold 1 million shares in a single transaction. The 5.42% drop pushed the stock to a weekly loss of 1.83%, the worst single-day performance in months.

Technically, the pullback has brought the shares back to a pivotal inflection point. The 50?day moving average sits at €174.40, just 2.09% below Friday’s close. This level is the first line of defence for the short?term uptrend. A successful hold would likely cap the correction; a break to the downside would open the door to the 100?day moving average at €165.70 and eventually the 200?day line at €161.46. The shares still trade 10.27% above the 200?day average, so the long?term structure remains intact, but the cushion is shrinking.

The relative strength index stands at 45.3, indicating neutral conditions with neither oversold nor overbought pressure. The 30?day annualised volatility of 43.58% underscores that large swings are part of the current trading regime. Despite the sharp decline, there is no evidence of panic selling.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nvidia?

Operationally, Nvidia continues to deliver on the AI roadmap. At Computex 2026 the company confirmed that the Vera?Rubin platform for data centres has entered full production, with shipments expected to begin in the third quarter. The new RTX Spark processor, announced alongside Microsoft, aims to bring personal AI agents directly to Windows PCs, intensifying competition with Intel and AMD. On the memory front, Nvidia has qualified Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron as certified suppliers for HBM4, diversifying a critical input for next?generation architectures.

Network equipment is also accelerating. New switches are shipping, co?developed with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, and CEO Jensen Huang described the emerging AI economies as “extremely profitable,” projecting demand exceeding $1 trillion by the end of 2027. A $2 billion investment in Marvell targets the connectivity bottleneck in AI infrastructure; Huang called Marvell a potential “next trillion?dollar company.”

The numbers provide a sturdy foundation for the narrative. In the first quarter of fiscal 2027, revenue surged 85% to $81.6 billion. Data centre revenue alone jumped 92% to $75.2 billion, confirming that training and inference demand remains robust. For the current quarter, Nvidia guided to $91 billion in revenue, a high bar but one set from a position of operational leverage.

Nvidia at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.

The analyst consensus sits at €256.04, implying roughly 44% upside from Friday’s close. For now, however, the market’s focus is squarely on the short?term technicals and the political calendar. Until the Senate testimony on June 11, China?related headlines will colour the tape. If Nvidia can defend the €174.40 support and maintain its delivery schedule for Vera?Rubin, last week’s rout may well be remembered as a consolidation within a still?intact uptrend.

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