Nvidia’s Earnings Countdown: A $1.5 Billion Bearish Wager, a $50 Billion China Bet, and Analyst Upgrades Galore

The diverging narratives surrounding Nvidia's quarterly report are becoming harder to reconcile. On one side, a chorus of analysts has been lifting price targets, with KeyBanc’s John Vinh now calling for $300 per share and Morgan Stanley raising its target to $285 on Blackwell and Rubin momentum. On the other, a new $1.5 billion short position has materialised from an AI-focused hedge fund run by a former OpenAI employee. The tension between these forces sets the stage for what promises to be the company’s most consequential earnings release in months.

The Bullish Blueprint

Morgan Stanley remains firmly overweight, projecting a total of $884 billion in data-centre revenue across the next two calendar years — well above the $785 billion consensus. That gap captures the essence of the bull case: Nvidia is not merely meeting expectations but is expected to outgrow them. KeyBanc’s calculations are even more granular. The firm anticipates $5–7 billion in additional Blackwell-related revenue next quarter alone, alongside an initial $3–4 billion contribution from the Rubin architecture. TD Cowen and UBS have each lifted their targets to $275, with UBS forecasting that Nvidia will beat its own revenue guidance by roughly $3 billion.

The Bearish Counterpoint

In a freshly filed 13F, Situational Awareness LP — founded by Leopold Aschenbrenner, a former OpenAI researcher — disclosed put options on Nvidia worth more than $1.5 billion. The same fund also holds bearish contracts on the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) exceeding $2 billion. That positioning runs directly against the broader institutional trend: during the first quarter, far more hedge funds added or expanded Nvidia stakes than reduced them. The short bet appears to be a deliberate contrarian call, not a market consensus.

China: The Wild Card

While much of the near-term focus is on silicon cycles, the geopolitical front may hold an even bigger lever. CEO Jensen Huang expressed optimism after a high-level meeting with US President Donald Trump and Chinese officials, hinting that China could eventually ease restrictions on advanced AI chip imports. Nvidia had previously pencilled in zero sales of its most cutting-edge chips to the country for the current period, yet Huang sees a potential opportunity worth up to $50 billion. Specific H200 shipments to major Chinese tech firms await final export clearances; if granted, they could unlock $13–14 billion in revenue. KeyBanc, however, cautions that management is unlikely to embed this effect into formal guidance.

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Beyond Data Centres

Nvidia is also making strides outside its core hyperscaler clientele. On May 18, the company announced an industrial partnership with Stellantis and Accenture to deploy AI-powered digital twins across the automaker’s global factories. Based on the Omniverse simulation platform, the technology will create virtual replicas of production lines, with pilot programmes slated for North America later this year. At the same time, the first Vera-CPU systems have been delivered to leading AI labs — including Anthropic and OpenAI — as well as to Oracle Cloud Infrastructure. These systems, built on the Vera-Rubin NVL72 architecture, pair Vera CPUs with Rubin GPUs via NVLink-C2C and are designed for agentic AI workloads with exceptionally high compute demands.

What the Numbers Imply

The consensus for the first fiscal quarter stands at earnings per share of $1.78, more than double the $0.81 reported a year earlier, on revenue of approximately $79 billion. Nvidia itself had guided for around $78 billion. The company closed its last fiscal year with $215.94 billion in revenue — up 65% — and a net profit of $120.07 billion. The fourth quarter alone generated $68.13 billion in revenue, with data-centre sales contributing $62.31 billion.

Shares closed Monday at €190.72 in European trading, up 18.39% year to date and 15% above the 50-day moving average. The options market is pricing in a swing of roughly 7.5% after earnings, well above recent post-result moves. The stock sits at €191.48, with the 200-day average comfortably below the current level, suggesting the pre-earnings dip — when it occurred — looked more like profit-taking than a shift in sentiment.

Nvidia at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.

The Real Test

Wednesday evening’s report will be judged on more than a single earnings beat. The key questions revolve around the pace of the Blackwell ramp, the timing of Rubin’s commercial contribution, and whether management can make the China opportunity feel tangible. A guidance number close to $78 billion that excludes any H200 uplift would leave the bullish price targets looking ambitious unless matched by equally bullish commentary on capacity and demand. The $1.5 billion short will be watching closely — and so will the rest of the market.

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Nvidia Stock: New Analysis - 19 May

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